Clean Harbors (CLH)

NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$318.76-0.69%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Clean Harbors’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.90 → 10.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.67B
EPS	—	2.397
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.6B
EPS	—	10.078
Free cash flow	$520M–$580Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$890M–$1.01B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.03B
EPS	—	10.319

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA rises at least 6% to $247.9 million	Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA rising 6% to $247.9 million.	Recovered	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 6% or below $247.9 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $247.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $409.0 million in 2026-Q2 (+22%), with net income rising 34% to $170.5 million. Management raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint by $110 million to $1.38 billion and adjusted free cash flow midpoint by $30 million to $550 million. The trajectory is delivering with strong growth and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Environmental Services revenue grows by at least $27.6 million	The Environmental Services segment expands with revenue up $27.6 million.	Intact	Environmental Services revenue growth falls below $27.6 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. The Environmental Services segment showed consistent Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, reaching 27.9% in 2026-Q2. Management secured a $600 million ten-year disposal contract commencing in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows delivering sustained segment growth and contract wins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 5.5% annually	A primary condition in Clean Harbors's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.5% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202611.946351 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4102cfab-b486-459b-a143-0f8f493a12bd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. The Environmental Services segment showed consistent Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, reaching 27.9% in 2026-Q2. Management secured a $600 million ten-year disposal contract commencing in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows delivering sustained segment growth and contract wins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Safety-Kleen EBITDA grows by at least 17%	A supporting condition in Clean Harbors's published investment case. The stated target is >=17% growth.	Intact	Safety-Kleen EBITDA growth falls below 17%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.32

$9.67 → $10.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.03B

$6.64B → $7.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.67	$6,641,452,050	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$9.67	$6,641,452,050	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.67	$6,641,452,050	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$9.67	$6,641,452,050	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$9.67	$6,641,452,050	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$9.71	$6,651,027,770	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$9.75	$6,671,718,740	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$9.80	$6,784,634,896	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$9.95	$6,825,419,800	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$9.95	$6,825,419,800	12 / 13
2026-08-03	$9.95	$6,825,419,800	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$9.95	$6,825,419,800	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$9.94	$6,824,446,690	13 / 14
2026-08-09	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$9.94	$6,824,446,690	13 / 14
2026-08-11	$9.94	$6,824,446,690	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$9.84	$6,808,684,896	11 / 11
2026-08-21	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-22	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-23	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-24	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-25	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-26	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-27	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-28	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-29	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-30	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-08-31	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-01	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-02	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-03	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-04	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-05	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-06	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-07	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-08	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-09	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-10	$9.90	$6,824,232,406	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	11 / 11
2026-09-12	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$9.90	$6,820,087,159	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$9.90	$6,820,090,246	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$9.90	$6,820,090,246	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$9.90	$6,820,289,052	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$9.93	$6,822,629,052	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$9.93	$6,822,629,052	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$9.93	$6,822,629,052	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$9.96	$6,821,998,586	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$9.96	$6,821,998,586	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$9.96	$6,821,998,586	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$9.96	$6,821,998,586	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$9.96	$6,821,998,586	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$9.96	$6,843,265,252	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$10.04	$6,868,696,926	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$10.10	$6,896,563,593	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$10.10	$6,896,563,593	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$10.10	$6,896,563,593	12 / 11
2026-10-13	$10.10	$6,896,563,593	12 / 11
2026-10-14	$10.14	$6,912,722,134	12 / 11
2026-10-15	$10.16	$6,938,722,134	12 / 11
2026-10-16	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	12 / 11
2026-10-17	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	12 / 11
2026-10-18	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	11 / 11
2026-10-19	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	11 / 11
2026-10-20	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	11 / 11
2026-10-21	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$10.23	$7,005,737,604	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$10.32	$7,034,520,236	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$10.32	$7,034,520,236	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	4
2026-06-01	11	4
2026-07-01	12	4
2026-08-01	12	4
2026-09-01	13	4
2026-10-01	14	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 22

$365.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 21 · prior May 14

$315.00 → $375.00+19.0%

BMO CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 8

$342.00 → $364.00+6.4%

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Jul 30

$325.00 → $335.00+3.1%

$0$206.25$412.50

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA rises at least 6% to $247.9 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Environmental Services revenue grows by at least $27.6 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 5.5% annuallyRevenue growth: 11.95%
Safety-Kleen EBITDA grows by at least 17%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Clean Harbors outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-led growth and acquisition story in environmental services, with recent financial performance rated strong. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable and management and earnings quality remain neutral.

What's priced into Clean Harbors

CLH is valued at a 39% premium to peers, and the evidence says that premium is justified, with low fragility in what is priced in. The expectations gap is modest at 5%, so the market appears to assume continued execution rather than a major surprise.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results support continued growth: second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA rose to $409.0 million, and management raised its 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. Acquisitions and a new disposal contract add growth capacity, while the sector backdrop is a headwind and a past deep miss plus the industry’s high miss rate remain risks.

What Clean Harbors hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on CLH sustaining EBITDA and free cash flow growth while integrating EnviroServe and ES&H and expanding Environmental Services. Near-term, reversing the recent guidance increase would damage credibility; continued strength or weakness among sector peers WM, RSG, and CWST could also shape the operating backdrop.