Reading CECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CECO free→Reading CECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CECO free→NASDAQIndustrialsPollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits aren't well backed by cash. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 320% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $95 CECO trades at 4× p/s — 2.0× the 2× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $22 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $80–$118. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 333% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.31 (-1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.2% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$247.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$449.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,508.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into CECO's performance and outlook. This can affect investor sentiment and stock price.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CECO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Directors Pursuant to Sections 1.7 and 6.3(e) of the Merger Agreement, effective as of the effective time of the First Merger, the size of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) was increased from eight members to ten members and the Board appointed Marcus J. George and Victor L. Richey, each of whom served as a member of the board of d…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $118.00 (median $103.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CECO CECO Environmental Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CECO aims for a 20% increase in revenue for the fiscal year 2026.
CECO targets a 25% increase in Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026.
CECO completed the acquisition of Thermon, integrating it as a wholly-owned subsidiary.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery for CECO and its peers. This is important as the sector is currently maturing and slowing down.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector increases back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Revenue growth over the last 3 years is under 5%. This shows it is slowing down.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On June 1, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), the Company consummated the previously announced merger with Thermon in accordance with the terms of the Merger Agreement. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement: (i) at the effective time of the First Merger, Merger Sub Inc. merged with and into Thermon, with Thermon continuing as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company and the surviving corporation of the First Merger; and (ii) immediately following the Firs…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant In connection with the consummation of the Mergers, the Company incurred additional indebtedness consisting of (i) $235.0 million borrowed under the delayed draw term loan facility established pursuant to Amendment No. 1 to the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 30, 2026 (the “Delayed Draw Term Loan Facility”), and (ii) approximately $290 million borro…
to the extent applicable. As discussed below, the stockholders approved the CECO Equity Plan Proposal at the Annual Meeting, which is effective as of May 27, 2026. The 2026 Plan succeeds the existing CECO Environmental Corp. 2021 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan (the “2021 Plan”). The 2026 Plan provides for the grant of up to (i) 3,350,000 shares of Company Common Stock, plus (ii) the shares remaining available for future grant under the 2021 Plan as of May 27, 2026. The foregoing descr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, CECO Environmental Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchang…