Reading ABM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If ABM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 ABM trades at 13× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.02 → $1.04 (+1.8% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,378.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This range is crucial for maintaining investor confidence in ABM's earnings outlook.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported within the $3.85 to $4.15 range.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS was below $3.85.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Earnings miss may impact revenue growth outlook.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 5, 2026, ABM Industries Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release announcing financial results related to the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is incorporated into this item by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABM ABM Industries, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ABM aims for total revenue growth toward the top end of the 4% to 5% range for fiscal 2026.
ABM reaffirms its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $3.85 to $4.15.
ABM has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, consistent with its capital allocation strategy.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports ABM's ability to invest in growth and maintain dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported above $22 million in Q3.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth would confirm ABM's ability to meet its revenue targets for 2026.
Confirms:Q3 organic revenue growth reported at 4% or higher.
Disproves:Q3 organic revenue growth was below 3%.
Why it matters: A decline may show problems in operations. This can affect overall profits.
Confirms:The segment operating margin was 7.8% or more.
Disproves:The segment operating margin was less than 7.5%.
Other Events. On June 5, 2026, the Company announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, payable August 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on July 2, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026, ABM Industries Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release announcing financial results related to the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K, which is incorporated into this item by reference.
Other Events. On March 10, 2026, the Company announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, payable May 4, 2026 to stockholders of record on April 2, 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 3, 2026, ABM Industries Incorporated (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”), by and among the Company, ABM Aviation UK Limited, a company incorporated and registered in England and Wales as a private company limited by shares and a subsidiary of the Company (“ABM UK”), each of the other subsidiaries of the Company from time to time party thereto (collectively, the “Subsidiary Guarantors”), the Lenders (as defi…