Reading FTEK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FTEK free→Reading FTEK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FTEK free→NASDAQIndustrialsPollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FTEK compared to sector peers below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact FTEK's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.31 FTEK trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $1.53 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.22x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.02. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$156.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$733.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit Fuel Tech.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FTEK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 5, 2026, Fuel Tech, Inc. ("Fuel Tech” or the “Registrant”) issued a press release which contained, among other things, an announcement of Fuel Tech's financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FTEK Fuel Tech Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | fair | high |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to secure a minimum of $5 million in contract bookings and $1 million in revenue from new contracts in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims to secure $5 million in contract bookings and $1 million in revenue from new contracts in 2026. However, the financials show a revenue decline from $7.25M in 2025-Q4 to $6.08M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress so far.
“secure a minimum of $5 million in contract bookings and $1 million in revenue from newly awarded contracts”
Focus on generating $1 million in revenue from newly awarded contracts in data centers.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims for $1 million in revenue from data center contracts. However, revenue decreased from $7.25M in 2025-Q4 to $6.08M in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress in this area.
“secure a minimum of $5 million in contract bookings and $1 million in revenue from newly awarded contracts arising from data centers”
Maintain an optimistic outlook for the performance of all business segments in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expresses optimism for 2026, but financials show a revenue decline from $7.25M in 2025-Q4 to $6.08M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in achieving growth.
“We remain optimistic about the outlook for each of our businesses for full year 2026.”
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 24, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Fuel Tech, Inc. (“Fuel Tech” or the “Company”) took the following actions: A. The Committee determined the number of restricted stock units to be awarded pursuant to the terms of the Company’s 2025 Executive Performance RSU Award Agreement (the “2025 Agr…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On March 3, 2026, Fuel Tech, Inc. ("Fuel Tech” or the “Registrant”) issued a press release which contained, among other things, an announcement of Fuel Tech's financial results for the fourth quarter and for the full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 11, 2025, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Fuel Tech, Inc. (“Fuel Tech” or the “Company”) took the following actions: 1. The Committee adopted Fuel Tech’s 2026 APC and National Sales Manager Commission Plan (the “APC Plan”) and 2026 FUEL CHEM® Officer Sales Commission Plan (the “FUEL CHEM” Plan).…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On November 4, 2025, Fuel Tech, Inc. ("Fuel Tech” or the “Registrant”) issued a press release which contained, among other things, an announcement of Fuel Tech's financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.