Arq, Inc. (ARQ)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$2.18-1.36%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Move towards positive earnings and free cash flow: EPS -2.0% vs 2.0% target; FCF -5.9% vs positive target.
Arq aims to grow revenue to about $122.5 million in 2026. The company has a new CFO with strong experience. Analysts expect revenue growth near 9% next year. The stock trades cheaply versus peers.
Arq is still loss-making and has volatile management. Recent key officer departures hurt stability. Revenue growth is uncertain and may miss targets. The sector faces headwinds.
The market expects about 9% revenue growth and values the stock cheaply versus peers. Our fair value near $6.04 aligns with consensus, but risks remain from profitability and management changes.
Breaks if: Additional key officer departures occur within next 4 quarters
Breaks if: EPS remains negative or free cash flow stays negative in FY26
Revenue falls below $120 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with high risk. The current thesis state reflects uncertainty due to recent earnings misses and volatility in management performance.
The valuation suggests that the market views ARQ as cheap compared to its peers, with a significant expectations gap. However, the fundamentals indicate that the company is currently loss-making, which adds to the complexity of its valuation.
Management is focused on achieving revenue and Adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, but recent financial performance has been weak. The company has a high probability of missing earnings expectations, which could further impact its trajectory.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. If key industry players continue to perform well, it may provide a tailwind for ARQ, but any negative shifts in their performance could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company advanced its PAC for PFAS product commercialization, which supports its strategic direction. However, it also reported a miss in its latest earnings, which weakens the overall outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, ARQ's situation is precarious, with mixed signals from management and the market. Not investment advice.