Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)

NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$97.61+0.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Casella Waste Systems, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.61 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	538.74M
EPS	—	0.295
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.1B
EPS	—	1.352
EBITDA	$473M–$483Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$200M–$210Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$370M–$380M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.26B
EPS	—	1.57

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete remarketing of $15 million revenue bonds	A supporting condition in Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $15 million remarketed.	Improving	Remarketing of revenue bonds not completed by mid 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 disclosures in 2026. The company commenced and priced the remarketing of $15 million in Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds in May 2026. This capital allocation action is progressing as planned with no reported issues. The trajectory is delivering on the stated capital management objective. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Effective COO leadership to enhance operational efficiency	The company appointed a new COO to boost efficiency and growth.	Improving	COO departure or failure to improve operations by end 2026	Qualitative: New COO hired (Jul 2026), Q2 beat, acquisition completed COO transition to Damian Ribar (Jul 2026). Q2 2026 earnings beat. Pennsylvania hauler acquisition completed to triple transfer capacity. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain operating income improvement near $4.9 million in Q1 2026	Operating income improved 54.5% from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $3.1 million in Q1 FY26	Operating income: $19.964M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.9M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202619,964,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dcd7c22-aee9-41e1-a78a-0c4033702bdf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $19.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $20.0 million in 2026-Q2 (+3.6%), with a notable jump from $4.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $20.0 million in 2026-Q2. The company attributes gains to pricing and volume growth. The trajectory shows delivering improvement consistent with management's focus on operating performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue near $2.07 billion in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.07B.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.83 billion in FY26	Revenue: $543.748M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.07B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026543,748,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9dcd7c22-aee9-41e1-a78a-0c4033702bdf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $457.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $543.7 million in 2026-Q2, a 16.9% increase year-over-year, driven by acquisitions and pricing. The company raised 2026 revenue guidance from $2.06-$2.08 billion to $2.09-$2.11 billion, reflecting acquisition activity and pricing strength. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.57

$1.73 → $1.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.26B

$2.22B → $2.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-07-28	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.50	$2,220,920,320	11 / 10
2026-08-11	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$1.47	$2,247,553,310	11 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$1.73	$2,220,931,200	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.61	$2,251,724,060	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.61	$2,252,214,060	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.61	$2,252,214,060	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.61	$2,254,183,260	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.61	$2,256,922,657	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.61	$2,256,922,657	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.58	$2,259,078,173	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.58	$2,259,078,173	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.58	$2,259,078,173	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.58	$2,259,078,173	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.58	$2,259,078,173	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.58	$2,259,030,673	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.58	$2,259,080,673	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.57	$2,256,386,591	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.57	$2,256,386,591	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	3	1
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	8	2	1
2026-08-01	8	2	1
2026-09-01	8	2	1
2026-10-01	8	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 21 · prior Jun 26

$122.00 → $95.00-22.1%

Raymond JamesOct 9

$106.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$67.10$134.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete remarketing of $15 million revenue bondsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain operating income improvement near $4.9 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $19.964M
Achieve revenue near $2.07 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $543.748M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-and-acquisitions business with a multi-year view that is still under watch, not a settled thesis. Management has delivered on its 2026 revenue priority, but earnings quality is loss-making and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Casella Waste Systems, Inc.

CWST is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to expectations that rely partly on a re-rating, meaning investors assign the business a higher valuation. The expectations gap is 0.31, but confidence in that estimate is low; recent valuation fell, and the evidence does not support a precise account of what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been supported by acquisitions and pricing, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance. A recent acquisition was completed, though equipment financing progress is mixed; the company also has a history of a deep miss, despite a currently quiet near-term risk signal. Over the multi-year view, continued growth depends on executing acquisitions and pricing while managing elevated risks and a sector headwind.

What Casella Waste Systems, Inc. hinges on

The unfavorable case is a reversal of the recent guidance increase, which could weaken confidence in management’s guidance. The favorable case depends partly on waste-sector peers WM, RSG, and CLH continuing to report strong results and raise guidance; misses or lower guidance could remove that sector support.