Reading CNH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNH free→Reading CNH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNH free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, CNH trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 CNH trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $19 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $10–$16. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-6.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$330.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,319.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if CNH can improve revenue and profit amid challenges.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Focus on revenue growth
Investment supports revenue growth through enhanced capabilities.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, CNH Industrial N.V. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$10.50 – $16.00 (median $12.63) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNH CNH Industrial | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive revenue growth despite challenging market conditions.
Management is focused on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Management aims to improve cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for CNH's ability to invest and manage debt.
Confirms one read:Free cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $350 million.
Confirms the other:Free cash flow for Q2 2026 falls below $150 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 26, 2026, CNH Industrial N.V. (the “Company” or “CNH”) and Citibank Europe Plc, UK Branch as facility agent, agreed to extend the maturity date of the Company’s € 3.25 billion credit facility to April 18, 2031 (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”). The foregoing description of the Credit Agreement Amendment does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the complete text of the Credit Agreement Amendment, which…
As of the date of the Credit Agreement, there are no borrowings outstanding under the Credit Agreement. CNH may from time to time borrow under the Credit Agreement and repay such borrowings.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 24, 2026, each of Ms. Asa Tamsons and Mr. Richard J. Kramer, both current members of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of CNH Industrial N.V. (the “Company”), notified the Board that they will not stand for re-election to the Board at the end of their respective current terms, and as a result, their respective terms as directors will en…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, CNH Industrial N.V. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and full year 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.