CNH Industrial (CNH)

NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.49-0.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CNH Industrial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.66 → 0.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	5.16B
EPS	—	0.209
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	18.28B
EPS	—	0.445
Free cash flow	$200M–$400M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	18.93B
EPS	—	0.681

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations to improve	Cash flow and profit margins must improve to sustain the turnaround.	Under Pressure	cash flow remains below $200 million	Cash from operations: $145M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $500 million cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026145,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS to reach guidance range	A supporting condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $0.35 and $0.45.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $0.30	Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $0.35 and $0.45. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 692b4df7-3efa-48ce-9262-079557a9e917. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income	A primary condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is >= $100 million operating income.	Under Pressure	operating income stays below $50 million	Operating income: $656M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026656,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to stabilize or improve	A primary condition in CNH Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.0 billion annual revenue.	Broken	annual revenue falls below $4.8 billion	Revenue: $4.803B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.0 billion annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20264,803,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 692b4df7-3efa-48ce-9262-079557a9e917. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.68

$0.73 → $0.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.93B

$19.02B → $18.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.73	$19,021,953,730	16 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.73	$19,011,064,850	16 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.73	$19,011,064,850	16 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.73	$19,011,064,850	16 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.73	$19,011,064,850	16 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.70	$19,020,506,671	12 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.70	$19,020,506,671	12 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.70	$19,020,506,671	12 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.70	$19,020,506,671	12 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.73	$19,011,064,850	16 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.70	$19,020,506,671	12 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.68	$19,202,872,342	12 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.71	$19,167,624,820	17 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.71	$19,167,624,820	17 / 9
2026-08-07	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.71	$19,167,791,490	17 / 9
2026-08-09	$0.71	$19,167,791,490	17 / 9
2026-08-10	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-11	$0.71	$19,169,563,820	17 / 9
2026-08-12	$0.70	$19,169,563,820	17 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.70	$19,169,563,820	17 / 9
2026-08-14	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.67	$19,203,072,342	13 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.65	$18,868,152,220	13 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.65	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.66	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.66	$18,868,124,947	13 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.66	$18,895,447,868	13 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.66	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.67	$18,895,439,535	13 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.67	$18,895,431,760	13 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.67	$18,895,431,760	13 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.67	$18,902,531,760	13 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.67	$18,902,531,760	13 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.67	$18,902,531,760	13 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.67	$18,902,531,760	13 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.67	$18,902,531,760	13 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.68	$18,921,032,176	13 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.68	$18,931,948,843	13 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.68	$18,931,948,843	13 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	8	1
2026-06-01	10	8	1
2026-07-01	10	8	1
2026-08-01	11	8	1
2026-09-01	12	8	1
2026-10-01	12	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 19

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations to improvePublished status: Under Pressure
EPS to reach guidance rangePublished status: Under Pressure
Improve operating incomePublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth to stabilize or improvePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CNH Industrial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical industrial business, meaning results can move with demand across its markets. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent momentum improved and the signal is mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into CNH Industrial

The evidence describes valuation as justified, with low fragility, but CNH carries a 1.27 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly undemanding; the evidence does not show that a large execution failure is already priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s cautious 2026 outlook points to roughly flat Agriculture sales and limited margin levels, while Construction sales are guided higher. Cost discipline is a stated priority, but delivery is mixed; recent earnings have been erratic, with a beat in August after a miss in April, and earnings surprises have been trending down.

What CNH Industrial hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether cost control can support results through a difficult sector backdrop and whether the cautious outlook is maintained. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support industrial momentum; weakness from those peers could remove that support.