Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$13.27+2.23%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put CLW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Recover towards cross-cycle margin levels: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 44% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCLW rests on recovering margins through price increases and better Augusta mill execution, despite weak recent performance. Revenue fell 4% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and Q3 reported a $0.23 loss per share. Management said Q3 adjusted EBITDA was within guidance, but the result missed Wall Street expectations. CLW trades at 0.1× sales versus 1.4× for peers, and 0.2× historically. The desk says the price reflects less growth than its forecast. Augusta mill failures, planned maintenance spending, and a 46% next-quarter miss probability threaten recovery. The peer-multiple read says peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CLW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 4 analysts currently covering CLW (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CLW in the last 4 months.
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Compare CLW with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CLW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Reduce costs and improve operational execution
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $13.27
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $13.27.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Low Q4 EBITDA outlook and planned Augusta outage pressure operating performance and cost execution.
Threatens: Industry recovery and margin improvement
Reported Q3 earnings miss and share decline signal pressure on recovery and margin improvement.
Advances: Industry recovery and margin improvement
Pricing and supply tightening support industry recovery.
Advances: Cost reduction and operational efficiency
Positive EBITDA outlook supports cost reduction efforts.
Threatens: Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction in 2025
Pricing headwind impacts cost reduction efforts.
Advances: Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction in 2025
Revenue target supports cost reduction strategy.
Sale of tissue business strengthens focus on core.