Reading CLW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLW free→Reading CLW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLW free→NYSEMaterialsPaper & Paper ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CLW trading below typical for its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 84% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CLW's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 CLW trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $110 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 84% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.19 → $-1.61 (-35.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$426.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,966.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show that the materials sector is recovering. This could help Clearwater Paper.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1%.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the materials sector is still negative or getting worse.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Approval of Equity Plan On May 7, 2026 , at the Clearwater Paper Corporation (the “Company”) 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved the Clearwater Paper Corporation 2026 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Equity Plan”). The Equity Plan establishes a new share reserve, in place of the unused share…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$12.00 – $23.00 (median $19.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLW Clearwater Paper Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
LIN Linde plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Clearwater Paper aims to achieve nearly $50 million in fixed cost reductions in 2025, exceeding their initial target.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Despite the aim for $50M in fixed cost reductions, revenue decreased from $399M in 2025-Q3 to $360.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in financial improvement. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the desired cost efficiency.
“on track to deliver nearly $50 million of fixed cost reduction in 2025”
Clearwater Paper plans to recover towards cross-cycle margin levels and cash flows through demand growth and supply changes.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Despite plans for recovery towards cross-cycle margin levels, operating income declined from $7.5M in 2025-Q4 to -$10.4M in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress in achieving the desired margin recovery.
“We believe that a combination of demand growth, lower imports, and changes in domestic supply will lead to a recovery in the medium term.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Clearwater Paper Corporation (the “Company”) announced its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ending March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In addition, a copy of the Company’s First Quarter Supplemental Information is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto. In addition to disclosing financial results calculated in accordance with…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026 , Clearwater Paper Corporation (the “Company”) announced its results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release containing this announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In addition, a copy of the Company’s Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto. In addition to disclosing financial results calculated in accordance with…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2025, Clearwater Paper Corporation (the “Company”) announced its results of operations and financial condition for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release containing this announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In addition, a copy of the Company’s Third Quarter Supplemental Information is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto. In addition to disclosing financial results calculated in accordance…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Steve Bowden, the Company’s Senior Vice President, Operations, will become the Company’s Senior Vice President, Commercial effective on January 1, 2026.