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Track CTVA free→Corteva (CTVA)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$76.88+1.55%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Market cap
- $50.92B
- Employees
- 21,500
- IPO date
- 2019-05-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$62.83consensus
Range $60.38 – $75.28
vs price: +22% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$109.92consensus
Range $107.02 – $127.23
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $76 CTVA trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $63 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $82–$95. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
31.4x
peer 25.3x · own history 25.8x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
21%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$62.62
range $60.80 – $74.41
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 21% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
41st pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
73rd pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish16 analysts, 70% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.24 → $2.23 (-0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 13 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,071.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for completion of the planned separation by Q4 2026
Why it matters: Finishing the separation is key for Corteva's future growth and focus. It will shape the new companies' strategies and market positions.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The separation will finish successfully. Both companies will launch as planned in Q4 2026.
Disproves:Delays or issues in the separation process that push the timeline beyond Q4 2026.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-134d agoMarkets Insider
Threatens: Maintain Cost Discipline
Ceasing production may impact cost discipline and revenue.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CF, MOS, and SMG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting CTVA and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CTVA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CTVA cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CF, MOS, and SMG start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping CTVA and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CTVA and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-125d agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities Corteva, Inc. (the “Company”) has been executing a multi-year footprint optimization and productivity initiative designed to enhance efficiency and reduce structural costs across its global operations (the "Crop Protection Operations Strategy Restructuring Program"). The Company previously communicated its expectation for annualized cost savings associated with this initiative which, coupled with other productivity actions, were included in th…
Product or strategy shiftneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.