Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$18.23-0.55%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MOS beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 35%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 45% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMosaic’s phosphate recovery must overcome rising input costs and delayed production recovery. Revenue grew 14% year over year in Q1; Q2 earnings beat expectations. Mosaic trades at 13× P/E versus the peer median of 17×. Expectations look modest versus our view, despite recent weak performance. The next-quarter miss probability is 41%; phosphate recovery remains a specific risk. The price reflects less growth than we forecast. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. MOS is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering MOS (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MOS in the last 4 months.
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Compare MOS with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MOS next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Recover phosphate sales volumes to 1.1-1.4 million tonnes in Q3 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $18.23
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $18.23.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Downgrade indicates concerns over phosphate sales recovery.
Core business decline impacts overall growth strategy.
Threatens: Continue cost reduction and efficiency initiatives targeting $150 million savin…
Rising sulfur prices threaten cost reduction initiatives.
Threatens: Maintain capital expenditures at $1.25 billion
High sulfur costs impact earnings and capital allocation.
Earnings miss raises concerns about future performance.
New product launch in China supports growth objectives.
