Reading IPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPI free→Reading IPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPI free→NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, IPI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 IPI trades at 20× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.38 (+65.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$241.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$540.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,667.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in the perceived risk associated with the stock. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the broader market environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback could signal strong cash flow and support share prices.
Confirms:The company announces that the full $50 million has been repurchased.
Disproves:The company says the buyback program is delayed or not used fully.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 15, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Jason Tremblay as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective immediately. In connection with his appointment as Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Trembly will also serve as the Company’s principal financial officer for SEC purposes, replacing Cris Ingold, our Chief Accounting Officer, who has served as interim principal financia…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
The Board has authorized an increase in the share repurchase program to up to $50 million.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities, which increased significantly in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good health and can help with growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations has gone up from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth might mean a recovery for Intrepid Potash.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in its existing share repurchase program, which was revised to increase the repurchase authorization to up to $50 million of its common stock. As of May 28, 2026 approximately $13.0 million remained available under the prior $35 million program. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results and operating highlights for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Credit Agreement On March 30, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into the Successor Agent Agreement and Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”) with the lenders party thereto, Bank of Montreal, as original administrative agent, and BMO Bank N.A., as successor administrative agent, which amended certain terms of the Amended and Restated Credit Agree…