Reading AVD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVD free→Reading AVD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, AVD trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.76 AVD trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$230.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$660.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,454.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit indicates better pricing or cost control. It supports growth potential.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases by more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin decreases or stays the same year over year in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in American Vanguard Corporation’s (“Company”) Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 19, 2026, AMVAC Chemical Corporation, a subsidiary of the Company, and certain affiliates of the Company entered into a Credit and Guaranty Agreement (the “First Lien Term Loan”) with a group of commercial lenders (the “Lenders”) led by…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVD American Vanguard Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
LIN Linde plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on restructuring the company's borrowed debt to improve financial stability.
Enhance cash flow from operations to strengthen the company's financial position.
Aim to increase gross profit to enhance overall profitability.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow signals better operational health. It can support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines or stays flat year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the materials sector can signal a recovery. It impacts AVD's outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth shows a positive change from negative to positive in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 16, 2026, American Vanguard Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three- and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is linked hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on March 16, 2026, the Company held its previously announced earnings call regarding its financial results for the three- and twelve-month periods end…
Compensatory bonuses were awarded to named executive officers for restructuring the company's borrowed debt.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 13, 2026, AMVAC Chemical Corporation (“AMVAC”), a subsidiary of American Vanguard Corporation (the “Company”), as borrower, and certain affiliates of the Company (including the Company), as guarantors, entered into (i) a Credit and Guaranty Agreement (the “First Lien Term Loan”) with a group of commercial lenders led by Centerbridge Partners, L.P., and Wilmington Trust, National Association as administrative agent; (ii) a Credit and Guarant…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 13, 2026, AMVAC, as borrower, and certain affiliates (including the Company), as guarantors and/or borrowers, terminated the Prior Credit Agreement concurrently with its entry into the Term Loans (as more fully described in Item 1.01, which is incorporated by reference herein). In connection with the termination, AMVAC retired all outstanding loans under the Prior Credit Agreement using proceeds from the Term Loans. The terms and condit…