NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | — | 170M |
| EPS | — | 0.37 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 555M |
| EPS | — | 0.38 |
Management figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves from negative $35.4M | The company plans to improve cash flow from operations. | Broken | Cash from operations remains negative beyond 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-25.018M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: improve from negative $35.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-25,018,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross profit stabilizes near $38.4 million | It targets stabilizing gross profit near $38 million. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $38 million next year | Gross profit: $34.713M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $38 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202634,713,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c22c66e2-8f69-4da4-ac59-46fad04ed373. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $540 million in 2026 | American Vanguard aims to grow revenue to about $540 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $520 million in FY26 | Revenue: $116.754M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$540 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026116,754,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c22c66e2-8f69-4da4-ac59-46fad04ed373. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVD is a high-risk turnaround-style business, with ongoing operating losses and a thesis that depends on better financial health. The long-term thesis is mixed and under watch, with management’s financial-discipline focus still unproven.
The evidence describes AVD as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The market’s pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and fundamentals.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated after a run of misses, while management has reaffirmed 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The CFO transition and debt restructuring are watch items; the sector backdrop is a headwind, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.
The near-term test is whether AVD maintains its reaffirmed guidance or cuts it on the next call. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on financial discipline and debt restructuring supporting improved financial health, while sector bellwethers’ results could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AVD remains a mixed, high-risk thesis: guidance is intact, but losses, repeated misses, and execution uncertainty remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.