American Vanguard Corp. (AVD)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$2.21-3.07%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cash from operations improves from negative $35.4M: OCF -35.4M vs target >0M.
American Vanguard aims to grow revenue to about $540 million in 2026. The company plans to improve cash flow from operations. It targets stabilizing gross profit near $38 million. These goals could help fix its financial health.
The company lost cash from operations recently. Gross profit fell from $42.6 million to $38.4 million. It faces high risk and volatile management. These problems could stop a recovery.
The market expects about 2% revenue growth. Our fair value is near $20.36. We see risk in cash flow and profit that the market may not fully price.
Breaks if: Cash from operations remains negative beyond 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $38 million next year
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $520 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as AVD is currently loss-making and facing elevated risks. The thesis is in a watch state, indicating uncertainty in its near-term performance.
The market appears to have priced in a low valuation compared to peers, suggesting that investors are not expecting strong performance in the near term. The expectations gap indicates that the market is cautious about AVD's ability to improve its financial results.
Fundamentals may struggle in the near term due to a high probability of missing earnings expectations, as AVD has a history of consecutive earnings misses. Management is focused on restructuring debt and improving cash flow, but these efforts are still in the early stages.
The future performance of AVD hinges on its ability to avoid further earnings misses and improve operational metrics. Additionally, favorable sector trends, such as inflation reaccelerating or strong performance from sector leaders, could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AVD's performance will depend on its management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.