Reading SMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMG free→Reading SMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMG free→
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $63.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 SMG trades at 14× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $63–$79. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.53 → $2.48 (-2.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$360.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,389.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders. It also shows financial health.
Confirms:Dividend payout stays at $0.66 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend payout is cut below $0.66 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve non-GAAP EPS of $4.15 to $4.35
Upgrade suggests improved earnings outlook and growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting information regarding its financial results for the three months ended March 28, 2026. Also, on April 29, 2026, the Company released, on its website, information regarding its financial results for the three and six months ended March 28, 2026 and its financial condition as of March 28, 2026. A copy of the news release and the financial results are furnished her…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$63.00 – $79.00 (median $75.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend payout at $0.66 per share.
Target free cash flow of $275 million for fiscal 2026.
Target non-GAAP adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $4.15 to $4.35 for fiscal 2026.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to meeting the company's fiscal 2026 targets. Weak growth could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Q3 net sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 net sales growth meets or exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This range is important for making money. It also helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Non-GAAP EPS reported within the range of $4.15 to $4.35.
Disproves:Non-GAAP EPS reported below $4.00.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. This helps the company's financial health.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $450M in Q3.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $400M in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend helps build trust with investors and manage funds.
Confirms one read:Management says the dividend will stay the same for Q2.
Confirms the other:Management says there will be a dividend cut or pause for Q2.
Why it matters: A good change in sector growth may show recovery. This could help Scotts' performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target is important. It helps improve the leverage ratio and supports dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $275 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $250 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. During the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the Company determined that the Hawthorne business met the criteria to be classified as held for sale. The Company determined this represents a strategic shift, and therefore, the Company classified its results of operations to reflect the Hawthorne business as a discontinued operation for all periods presented in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended December 27, 2025, which was filed on…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment and Restatement of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Long-Term Incentive Plan. At the Annual Meeting of Shareholders of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (the “Company”) held on January 26, 2026, the Company’s shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Long-Term Incentive Plan (the “Plan”) to increase t…