What could strengthen or challenge Scotts Miracle-Gro Company’s outlook?
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Higher potential upsideImproving expectations
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Comparable estimates unavailable
+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
How this is measured
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Measure / period
Management expectations
Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue
—
362.95M
EPS
—
-0.715
FY 2026 · Annual
EPS
$4.3–$4.45non-GAAP
—
Free cash flow
$275M
—
Gross margin
At least 32%non-GAAP
—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue
—
3.37B
EPS
—
4.782
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue
—
3.45B
EPS
—
5.17
What the Thesis Depends On
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
Key Factor
Why It Matters
Current Status
Break Condition
Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend per share
A supporting condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain $0.66 per share quarterly dividend.
Intact
dividend cut or suspension in FY26
Dividend per share: $0.66 per share
FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain $0.66 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation.
Source published Aug 5, 20260.66 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement source
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated or implied as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.66 from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q3. This reflects steady capital return to shareholders with no change in payout, indicating delivery on this commitment.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Non-GAAP adjusted EPS
A primary condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.15 and $4.35.
Intact
EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26
Direct metric needs a verified mapping
The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance from $4.15-$4.35 to $4.30-$4.45 in 2026-Q3. Diluted EPS from continuing operations was $1.75 in 2026-Q3, showing progress toward the annual target. The trajectory is delivering with an upward revision reflecting confidence in meeting the guidance.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow
Free cash flow target is $275 million, supporting stable dividends.
Intact
free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26
Free cash flow: $307M
FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$275 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation.
Source published Aug 5, 2026307,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement source
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company reaffirmed free cash flow guidance of $275 million for fiscal 2026. Net leverage ratio improved from approximately 4.15x in 2025-Q3 to 3.78x in 2026-Q3, reflecting progress on deleveraging. The trajectory is delivering consistent with management's capital allocation focus.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin rate
A primary condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=32% gross margin.
Under Pressure
gross margin falls below 30% in Q3 FY26
Gross margin: 31.22%
FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=32% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation.
Source published Aug 5, 202631.217473 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement source
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined from $221.8M in 2025-Q3 to $169.6M in 2026-Q3 (-24%), and non-GAAP gross margin rate decreased by 100 basis points to 31.3%. Despite management's focus on margin management and operational excellence, profitability shows a declining trajectory in the latest quarter.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
U.S. Consumer segment net sales growth
Consumer segment.
Broken
YoY net sales growth falls below 3% in FY26
Direct metric needs a verified mapping
The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. U.S. Consumer segment net sales showed 1% growth in 2026-Q3 and 5% growth in 2026-Q2 versus prior year, consistent with the low single-digit growth guidance reaffirmed each quarter. The trajectory is delivering modest growth aligned with management's stated focus.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Incoming Evidence
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Expectations trend
Same fiscal period
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.
FY2028 revenue$3.45B
$3.45B → $3.45B · observed estimates
Exact estimates & source dates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot
EPS
Revenue
EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01
Unavailable
$3,450,504,370
2 / 6
2026-10-02
Unavailable
$3,450,504,370
2 / 6
2026-10-03
Unavailable
$3,450,504,370
2 / 6
2026-10-04
Unavailable
$3,450,504,370
2 / 6
2026-10-05
Unavailable
$3,450,504,370
2 / 6
2026-10-06
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-07
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-08
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-09
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-10
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-11
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-12
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-13
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-14
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-15
Unavailable
$3,453,844,370
2 / 6
2026-10-16
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-17
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-18
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-19
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-20
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-21
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-22
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-23
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
2026-10-24
Unavailable
$3,452,278,738
2 / 6
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
How this is measured
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Outlook in Brief
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
What's improving
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Still unresolved / key risks
Quarterly dividend per shareDividend per share: $0.66 per share
Non-GAAP adjusted EPSDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flowFree cash flow: $307M
Gross margin ratePublished status: Under Pressure
U.S. Consumer segment net sales growthPublished status: Broken
Next proof point
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Risk observations as of Oct 23, 2026 · 277 daily observations. Historical moves are not forecasts.
Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company outlook in detail
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
What kind of bet this is
SMG is a cyclical, loss-making business with a thesis that depends on execution and sector conditions. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and recent quality and momentum measures have weakened.
What's priced into Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
The evidence describes SMG as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap, meaning the market appears to assume little beyond current expectations. The valuation model has low confidence, so the peer discount is not a strong standalone signal.
What the fundamentals likely do
Near term, the raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and progress on leverage support the operating picture, while free cash flow guidance remains unchanged. The main execution risk is reversing the recent guidance increase; sector conditions are also a headwind, and recent quality and momentum scores have declined.
What Scotts Miracle-Gro Company hinges on
Over the next year, delivery on fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and the free cash flow goal will matter, along with continued progress in reducing leverage. Sector bellwethers’ results could either sustain or weaken the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility.
Bottom line
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact but conditional: execution and debt reduction are progressing, while weaker quality and momentum and a sector headwind leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Source: QuarterlyIQ weekly Outlook · Week ending Oct 24, 2026 · Updated
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
