Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)

NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$18.82-0.69%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mosaic Company (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.51 → 1.45 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditures at $1.25 billion in 2026	The company aims to keep capital spending at $1.25 billion in 2026.	Intact	capital expenditures exceed $1.3 billion in 2026	Capital expenditures: $320.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1250 USD millions. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 2026320,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditure guidance was $1.25 billion in 2026-Q1 and reduced to $1.2 billion in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's ongoing focus on disciplined capital allocation and deferral of less-time sensitive projects. The trajectory is delivering consistent with management's stated capital discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Idling Araxá and Patrocínio complexes in Brazil	Idling some Brazil complexes should reduce costs and improve margins.	Intact	idling plan is reversed or delayed beyond 2026-Q2	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Recover phosphate sales volumes to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026	Phosphate sales volumes target a recovery to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026.	Intact	phosphate sales volume falls below 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management set phosphate sales volume guidance of 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in 2026-Q1 and 1.1-1.4 million tonnes in 2026-Q2 for Q3 2026. Actual sales volumes declined from 1.9 million tonnes in 2026-Q1 to 1.4 million tonnes in 2026-Q2, reflecting partial production curtailments. The trajectory shows mixed progress with volumes below early guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.45

$1.85 → $1.45 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.02B

$12.67B → $13.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.85	$12,668,677,116	10 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.82	$12,717,441,760	15 / 19
2026-07-26	$1.82	$12,717,441,760	15 / 19
2026-07-27	$1.85	$12,668,677,116	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.80	$12,691,566,004	10 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.78	$12,748,821,200	15 / 19
2026-07-30	$1.78	$12,748,821,200	15 / 19
2026-07-31	$1.81	$12,724,677,116	10 / 14
2026-08-01	$1.81	$12,724,677,116	10 / 14
2026-08-02	$1.82	$12,748,821,200	17 / 19
2026-08-03	$1.82	$12,748,821,200	17 / 19
2026-08-04	$1.81	$12,724,677,116	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$1.81	$12,724,677,116	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.82	$12,748,821,200	17 / 19
2026-08-07	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$1.69	$12,690,124,650	17 / 19
2026-08-10	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.68	$12,697,824,710	17 / 19
2026-08-13	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$1.70	$12,683,680,675	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$1.53	$12,644,424,896	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$1.53	$12,644,424,896	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$1.53	$12,644,424,896	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$1.53	$12,644,424,896	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$1.53	$12,644,424,896	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$1.55	$12,698,038,125	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$1.49	$12,619,290,508	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$1.49	$12,619,290,508	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$1.49	$12,619,290,508	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$1.51	$12,674,449,890	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$1.51	$12,674,454,644	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$1.51	$12,674,454,644	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$1.46	$12,820,670,559	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$1.46	$12,820,686,615	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$1.48	$12,955,426,663	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$1.47	$12,924,176,663	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$1.47	$12,950,445,051	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$1.47	$12,950,445,051	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$1.46	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$1.46	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$1.46	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-12	$1.46	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-13	$1.46	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-14	$1.45	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14
2026-10-15	$1.45	$13,015,805,293	10 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	11	2
2026-06-01	10	10	2
2026-07-01	10	10	1
2026-08-01	10	9	2
2026-09-01	9	9	2
2026-10-01	10	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$25.00 → $22.00-12.0%

RBC CapitalOct 5

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.75$27.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditures at $1.25 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $320.3M
Idling Araxá and Patrocínio complexes in BrazilQualitative condition
Recover phosphate sales volumes to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mosaic Company (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cautious view on a materials company facing headwinds. The current thesis state reflects uncertainty, with recent financial performance being weak and management's execution showing mixed results.

What's priced into Mosaic Company (The)

The market currently prices MOS as cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be anticipating significant improvements in performance in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may struggle in the near term due to recent weak financial performance and a high probability of missing earnings expectations. Management's focus on capital discipline and recovering phosphate sales volumes indicates a mixed trajectory ahead.

What Mosaic Company (The) hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, inflation trends, and performance of sector peers. Positive developments in these areas could support a more favorable outlook.