Corteva (CTVA)

NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$12.880.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Corteva’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-82.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.14 → 0.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Crop Protection net sales grow to at least $1.88 billion	Corteva grows seed and crop protection sales steadily.	Intact	Crop Protection net sales fall below $1.78 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating EBITDA remains between $4.0 billion and $4.2 billion	Operating EBITDA is guided near $4.1 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Operating EBITDA falls below $4.0 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed and then increased full-year 2026 guidance for Operating EBITDA from $4.0-$4.2 billion to $4.1-$4.3 billion, with Operating EPS guidance steady at $3.45-$3.70. This reflects management's consistent confidence in growth and margin expansion for 2026. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete seed business spin-off by 2026-Q4	The planned seed business spin-off is on track for late 2026.	Recovered	Spin-off delayed beyond 2026-Q4	Spin-off completed 2026-10-01 vs 2026-Q4 target Corteva completed the Vylor spin-off on Oct 1, 2026; subsequent TRO filed Oct 9 does not reverse completion. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently emphasized completing the separation by the second half of 2026, including key milestones such as CEO appointment and Form 10 filing. The company remains on track with no indication of delay, delivering on the stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Seed segment net sales grow to at least $4.54 billion	Corteva grows seed and crop protection sales steadily.	Intact	Seed net sales fall below $4.54 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.73

$4.16 → $0.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.05B

$18.97B → $8.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.16	$18,974,713,947	5 / 14
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	3 / 18
2026-07-26	$4.17	$18,982,991,725	5 / 14
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	4 / 18
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	4 / 18
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	4 / 18
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	4 / 18
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$18,950,890,400	4 / 18
2026-08-01	$4.17	$18,972,336,170	5 / 14
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$18,873,011,200	4 / 18
2026-08-03	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$18,873,011,200	4 / 18
2026-08-05	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-06	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-07	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$18,756,583,230	4 / 19
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$18,756,583,230	4 / 19
2026-08-10	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-11	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-12	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-13	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-14	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-15	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-16	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-17	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-18	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-19	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.15	$18,914,312,158	5 / 15
2026-08-21	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-22	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-23	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-24	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-25	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-26	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-27	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-28	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-29	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-30	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-08-31	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-01	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-02	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-03	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-04	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-05	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-06	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-07	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-08	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-09	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-10	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-11	$4.15	$18,733,645,059	5 / 15
2026-09-12	$4.14	$18,716,137,425	5 / 15
2026-09-13	$4.14	$18,716,137,425	5 / 16
2026-09-14	$4.14	$18,716,137,425	5 / 16
2026-09-15	$4.14	$18,716,137,425	5 / 16
2026-09-16	$4.14	$18,716,137,425	5 / 16
2026-09-17	$4.14	$18,718,242,688	5 / 16
2026-09-18	$4.14	$18,718,242,688	5 / 16
2026-09-19	$4.14	$18,720,751,035	6 / 16
2026-09-20	$4.15	$18,720,751,035	6 / 16
2026-09-21	$4.15	$18,720,751,035	6 / 16
2026-09-22	$4.15	$18,706,070,537	6 / 16
2026-09-23	$4.15	$18,716,133,509	6 / 16
2026-09-24	$4.15	$18,716,133,509	6 / 16
2026-09-25	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-09-26	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-09-27	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-09-28	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-09-29	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-09-30	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-10-01	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-10-02	$4.15	$18,713,780,568	6 / 16
2026-10-03	$0.62	$18,693,786,439	6 / 16
2026-10-04	$0.62	$18,693,786,439	5 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.62	$18,693,786,439	5 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.65	$18,666,201,787	5 / 10
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$18,662,421,965	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	$0.68	$8,040,205,840	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.68	$8,040,205,840	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$0.68	$8,040,205,840	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$0.73	$8,049,396,180	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$0.73	$8,049,396,180	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.73	$8,049,396,180	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	7
2026-06-01	16	7
2026-07-01	16	7
2026-08-01	15	7
2026-09-01	15	8
2026-10-01	15	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 16

$90.00 → $15.00-83.3%

Goldman SachsOct 8

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Jul 21

$103.00 → $17.00-83.5%

KeyBancOct 7

$17.00New observation · no comparable prior

OppenheimerOct 5 · prior Sep 24

$95.00 → $17.00-82.1%

New StreetOct 5 · prior Sep 16

$95.00 → $17.00-82.1%

Morgan StanleyOct 2 · prior May 28

$95.00 → $18.00-81.1%

BMO CapitalOct 2 · prior Sep 16

$95.00 → $15.00-84.2%

$0$56.65$113.30

0 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Crop Protection net sales grow to at least $1.88 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating EBITDA remains between $4.0 billion and $4.2 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Seed segment net sales grow to at least $4.54 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-86.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Corteva outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a multi-year view on a company facing elevated risks and volatile management. CTVA is positioned in the materials sector, which can be influenced by broader economic conditions and sector performance.

What's priced into Corteva

The current valuation suggests that the market sees CTVA as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not fully pricing in potential risks. The company's fragile execution quality is acknowledged but does not dominate the overall market perception.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently reaffirmed and raised financial guidance, indicating a focus on growth, particularly in the Seed segment. However, recent financial performance has been weak compared to industry peers, which could pose challenges.

What Corteva hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly the planned separation and growth initiatives. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in shaping CTVA's trajectory.