Reading LIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LIN free→Reading LIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LIN free→
NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If LIN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $518.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $521 LIN trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $373 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $552–$600. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $4.48. 15 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.4% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$173.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,919.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." The sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth range is key for Linde to stay on track for its full-year EPS target.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EPS reported between $4.40 and $4.50.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EPS reported below $4.40.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Partnership with SpaceX enhances growth potential and market position.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, Linde plc (the “Company”) issued €600 million aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”), issued €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.200% Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and issued €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.800% Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”). The 2028 Notes, the 2030 Notes and the 2036 Notes were issued pursuant to a Subscription Agreement, dated May 11, 2026, by and among the Company, as issue…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$552.00 – $600.00 (median $575.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LIN Linde plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 2.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Linde aims to achieve a 7% to 9% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share for the full year 2026.
Linde plans to allocate $5 billion to $5.5 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 to support growth and maintenance.
Linde aims for an 8% to 10% increase in adjusted diluted EPS for the second quarter of 2026.
Target EPS growth of 7% to 9% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Higher sales growth shows strong demand and good pricing strategies.
Confirms:Q2 underlying sales growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth is below 3%. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Meeting capex guidance helps support growth plans and keeps operations stable.
Confirms:Capital spending will be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion in 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending is under $5 billion. This may show limits to growth.
Why it matters: Confirming the guidance range of $17.60 to $17.90 is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says adjusted EPS for the year will be $17.60 to $17.90.
Disproves:Management lowers adjusted EPS for the year to less than $17.60.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may mean a recovery for Linde.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth stays negative, showing ongoing decline.
Why it matters: A growing project backlog shows that future revenue may be strong.
Confirms:Project backlog is above $10 billion, showing strong future demand.
Disproves:Project backlog is below $10 billion. This shows possible revenue challenges.
hereof: Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press Release dated May 1, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. LINDE PLC Date: May 1, 2026 By: /s/ Kelcey E. Hoyt Name: Kelcey E. Hoyt Title: Principal Accounting Officer 3
hereof: Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press Release dated February 5, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. LINDE PLC By: /s/ Kelcey E. Hoyt Name: Kelcey E. Hoyt Title: Principal Accounting Officer Date: February 5, 2026 3
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. 364-Day Credit Agreement On December 3, 2025, Linde plc (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into an unsecured 364-day revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and a syndicate of banking institutions as lenders. The initial borrowers under the Credit Agreement are the Company, Linde Inc., Linde GmbH and Linde Finance B.V. Additional subsidiaries of the Company may bec…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under “