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Linde plc (LIN)
NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$518.17-0.63%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If LIN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $242.07B
- Employees
- 65,177
- IPO date
- 2017-10-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-31
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $518.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$375.04consensus
Range $297.98 – $440.14
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$469.82consensus
Range $308.00 – $602.97
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $521 LIN trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $373 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $552–$600. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
31.0x
peer 25.3x · own history 29.8x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
40%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$372.72
range $298.52 – $439.60
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensive12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
78th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
48th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish18 analysts, 79% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $4.48. 15 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.4% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$173.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,919.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." The sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for Q2 adjusted EPS growth between 8% and 10%
Why it matters: This growth range is key for Linde to stay on track for its full-year EPS target.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EPS reported between $4.40 and $4.50.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EPS reported below $4.40.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-116d agoYahoo! Finance
Partnership with SpaceX enhances growth potential and market position.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, Linde plc (the “Company”) issued €600 million aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”), issued €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.200% Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and issued €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.800% Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”). The 2028 Notes, the 2030 Notes and the 2036 Notes were issued pursuant to a Subscription Agreement, dated May 11, 2026, by and among the Company, as issue…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.