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Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$274.29+0.77%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, indicating potential instability. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If STLD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Market cap
- $40.78B
- Employees
- 14,400
- IPO date
- 1996-09-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $274.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$236.67consensus
Range $155.11 – $262.33
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$647.09consensus
Range $429.90 – $1259.27
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $272 STLD trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $237 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $190–$293. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.1x
peer 25.3x · own history 10.3x
Premium
1.1x peer
2.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
15%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$236.78
range $159.84 – $271.52
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
54th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
18th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.3% / 30d, n=10for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.00 → $4.14 (+3.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$315.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,033.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for Q2 2026 earnings results on July 20
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains strong performance after a record Q1.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 net income exceeds $403 million reported in Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 net income falls below $403 million.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoSeeking Alpha
AI capex issues could hinder growth objectives.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NUE, RS, and CLF keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting STLD and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If STLD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If STLD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NUE, RS, and CLF start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping STLD and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits STLD and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On May 7, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release titled “Steel Dynamics Announces Second Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend.” A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.