Reading NWPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWPX free→Reading NWPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWPX free→NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact NWPX's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $131.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $131 NWPX trades at 30× p/e — 1.5× the 20× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $88 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.33 → $1.31 (-1.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,570.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision could impact interest rates and economic conditions. This affects NWPX's cost of capital and growth prospects.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a more hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a more dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWPX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 29, 2026, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and its current outlook. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release issued April 29, 2026 is furnished…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NWPX NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to maintain strong Precast revenue with continued margin improvement.
Management is focused on delivering strong EPS performance, with a low guidance of $3.56 for 2026.
Management aims to sustain strong cash flow from operations to support business growth.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift from the current declining phase. This could improve investor sentiment towards NWPX.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1% for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are buying. Strong sales can mean a better economy for NWPX.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise much higher than expected.
Confirms the other:Retail sales fall or do not meet expectations.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS Grant of Performance Share Units and Restricted Stock Units On March 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company” and “NPWX Infrastructure”), upon the approval and recommendation of the Compensation Committee, approved grants of performance share units (“PSUs”) and restricted stock units (“RSUs”) for the following Nam…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 25, 2026, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and its current outlook. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. The press release issued February 25,…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On January 15, 2026, Miles Brittain, Executive Vice President of NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) informed the Company that he will retire on April 3, 2026. Mike Wray has been named Executive Vice President, effective January 19, 2026, allowing for his immediate assumption of duties required of that role as well as to assist with various tr…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On December 10, 2025, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the parameters of the Company’s performance-based cash incentive program (Short Term Incentive Plan or “STI”) for the 2026 fiscal year. The performance goals for the 2026 STI relate to the Company’s level of income before…