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NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$259.31-2.64%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The stock's outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers in the Materials sector.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Market cap
- $60.66B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $259.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$263.68consensus
Range $152.18 – $313.07
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$570.98consensus
Range $436.14 – $836.06
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $259 NUE trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $264 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $213–$292. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.3x
peer 25.3x · own history 11.4x
Premium
1.0x peer
2.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
-2%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$263.68
range $152.18 – $318.75
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
82nd pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
54th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish11 analysts, 76% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.15 → $4.24 (+2.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- weak
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$270.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,843.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation rose by 17.1 points (from 2.6 to 19.7).
As of June 15, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for Q1 EPS results on July 27, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings per share results will show if Nucor is improving its profits. This is key for investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q1 EPS exceeds $2.00, indicating strong earnings growth.
Disproves:Q1 EPS falls below $1.50, showing continued earnings weakness.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NUE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like STLD, RS, and CLF keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting NUE and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NUE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NUE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like STLD, RS, and CLF start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping NUE and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NUE and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On May 28, 2026, the Company and Mr. Sumoski entered into a Retirement, Separation, Waiver and Release Agreement (the “Retirement Agreement”) in connection with Mr. Sumoski’s retirement from employment with the Company, effective June 13, 2026. The Retirement Agreement, together with the Surviving Provisions (as defined in the Retirement Agreem…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.