Reading FRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRD free→Reading FRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FRD free→NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FRD is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FRD cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 FRD trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,477.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping sales volume is key for making more money. Steady growth helps the management plan.
Confirms:Sales volume increases by at least 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Sales volume decreases or grows less than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRD Friedman Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to improve sales margins through increases in average selling prices.
Management aims to maintain consistent sales volume across quarters.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate demand trends. Strong sales may boost industry outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase of over 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease of more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve sales margins. Better margins would show progress in pricing strategies.
Confirms:Sales margins improve by more than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Sales margins decline or remain flat compared to the previous quarter.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Credit Facility Amendment On December 9, 2025, the Company entered into a Sixth Amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement by and among the Company, as a borrower, Century Metals & Supplies, LLC, a Texas limited liability company, as a borrower, the lenders party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The Amendment amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of M…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information provided in
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.