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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$13.26-2.71%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CLF trading below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Market cap
- $7.77B
- Employees
- 18,000
- IPO date
- 1994-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$42.52consensus
Range $42.52 – $42.52
vs price: -69% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$58.37consensus
Range $58.37 – $58.37
vs price: -77% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $14 CLF trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $9.00–$15. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.4x
peer 1.2x · own history 0.4x
Premium
0.3x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-70%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$44.91
range $44.91 – $44.91
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
22nd pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.35x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 15% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.20 → $-0.20 (+1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$275.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$560.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,167.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 steel shipment volumes to meet or exceed 4.1 million net tons
Why it matters: This number is key to hitting the full-year target of 16.5-17.0 million net tons. Strong shipments signal demand recovery.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 steel shipment volumes reported at or above 4.1 million net tons.
Disproves:Q2 steel shipment volumes fall below 4.1 million net tons.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLF yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NUE, STLD, and RS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting CLF and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CLF raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-20), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CLF cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-20), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NUE, STLD, and RS start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping CLF and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CLF and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-201mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. issued a news release announcing the first-quarter financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.