Reading CMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMC free→Reading CMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMC free→NYSEMaterialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If CMC cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 CMC trades at 15× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $75–$89. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.87 → $1.97 (+5.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,996.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will grow CMC's precast platform. It will help CMC in the market.
Confirms:The deal for Foley Products is done. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Disproves:The deal is delayed or fails because of regulatory problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company (“ CMC ” or the “ Company ”) announced that the Company’s Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) appointed Michael R. Dumais to serve as a Class II director of the Company, effective June 23, 2026. As such, Mr. Dumais will stand for re-election at the Company’s 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. In connect…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$75.00 – $89.00 (median $80.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CMC aims to expand its precast platform through the acquisitions of Foley and CP&P, enhancing its market position and financial profile.
CMC is focused on reducing net leverage to a target of 2x within the previously committed timeframe.
CMC continues to enhance margins through its Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) program, driving operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows CMC is serious about managing debt. It will help their finances.
Confirms:Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio falls to 2.0x or below.
Disproves:Net debt to adjusted EBITDA stays above 2.7x. This shows slow progress.
Why it matters: Better margins show CMC is managing costs well. This also means more profit.
Confirms:Core EBITDA margin increases by at least 210 basis points on a pro forma basis.
Disproves:Core EBITDA margin does not improve or gets worse. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could affect CMC's finances and reputation.
Confirms:The appeal wins, leading to a good ruling for CMC.
Disproves:The appeal fails, keeping the original ruling against CMC.
of Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Other Events. On March 25, 2026, CMC (NYSE: CMC) issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of CMC declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share of CMC common stock. The dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 6, 2026. A copy of CMC's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On October 15, 2025, Commercial Metals Company (the “ Company ”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with the equityholders of the Foley Companies (defined below) (collectively, the “ Sellers ”), The Concrete Company, a Georgia corporation (the “ Holdco Sellers ’ Representative ”), OCM SSF II Foley Holdings, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the “ Oaktree Sellers ’ Representative ” and, together with the Hold…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 16, 2025, Commercial Metals Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended August 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The press release is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02, and the foregoing description of the press release is qualified in its entirety by reference to Exhibit 99.1. The information in this