Commercial Metals (CMC)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-29
$63.98-2.62%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put CMC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Core EBITDA margin near 14.2% driven by TAG program: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 20% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskCMC’s case rests on TAG-driven margin gains, with revenue growth accelerating into fiscal 2026’s fourth quarter. Revenue grew 25.7% year over year, and adjusted earnings beat consensus by 6.1%. CMC trades at 10× P/E versus a 17× peer median, while its own historical multiple is 11×. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. Core EBITDA margin near 14.2% is under pressure, though the metric mapping needs verification. A 24% next-quarter miss probability adds execution risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CMC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering CMC (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CMC in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Steel — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CMC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Enhance margins through TAG operational excellence program
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $63.98
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $63.98.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Additional TAG savings and accelerated buybacks support operational improvement and disciplined capital returns.
Advances: Enhance margins through TAG operational excellence program
Reported margin expansion and TAG outperformance directly advance the operational-excellence objective.
Advances: Expand precast platform with Foley and CP&P acquisitions
Targets $1.8B EBITDA supports growth through acquisitions.
Threatens: Enhance margins through TAG program
Analysts slashing forecasts may hinder margin goals.
Threatens: Enhance margins through TAG program
Missed earnings estimates could impact margin enhancement.
Advances: Enhance margins through TAG program
Higher-margin business mix enhances margin objectives.
Advances: Enhance margins through TAG program
Anti-dumping ruling supports margin enhancement efforts.
Advances: Enhance margins through TAG program
Preliminary ruling against rebar aids margin objectives.
