Commercial Metals (CMC)

NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-23

$62.77-1.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Commercial Metals’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	2.55B
EPS	—	1.677
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	2.31B
EPS	—	1.212
Annual ending 2027-08-31
Revenue	—	10.29B
EPS	—	6.897
Annual ending 2028-08-31
Revenue	—	10.61B
EPS	—	6.912

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend at least $0.20 per share	Dividends rose 11% to $0.20 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.18 per share next year	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Core EBITDA margin near 14.2% driven by TAG program	Operational gains come from the TAG program.	Under Pressure	Core EBITDA margin falls below 10% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net leverage below 2.0x by mid-2027	The company is cutting debt with net leverage near 2.1x.	Intact	Net leverage remains above 2.1x by end of 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 11% annually	A primary condition in Commercial Metals's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.9% YoY revenue growth next 12 months.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.91

Unavailable → $6.91 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$10.61B

$10.20B → $10.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$10,197,973,937	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$10,194,950,391	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$10,194,950,391	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$10,180,958,337	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$10,180,958,337	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$10,181,287,908	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$10,181,287,049	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$10,218,429,906	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$10,218,429,906	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$10,218,429,906	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$10,218,429,906	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$10,226,462,735	4 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.96	$10,226,462,735	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$6.96	$10,226,462,735	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$6.96	$10,226,462,735	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$6.93	$10,211,338,367	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.93	$10,211,338,367	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$6.93	$10,211,338,367	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$6.93	$10,211,338,367	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$6.96	$10,261,000,581	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$6.67	$10,443,974,696	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$6.67	$10,443,974,696	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$6.66	$10,459,282,096	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$7.02	$10,636,862,877	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$7.02	$10,636,862,877	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$6.91	$10,608,808,248	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$6.91	$10,608,808,248	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$6.91	$10,608,808,248	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$6.91	$10,608,808,248	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	4
2026-06-01	8	5
2026-07-01	8	5
2026-08-01	8	4
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 20 · prior Aug 7

$80.00 → $72.00-10.0%

BMO CapitalOct 19 · prior Jun 29

$77.00 → $73.00-5.2%

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Jun 26

$80.00 → $70.00-12.5%

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend at least $0.20 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Core EBITDA margin near 14.2% driven by TAG programPublished status: Under Pressure
Net leverage below 2.0x by mid-2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth near 11% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Commercial Metals outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CMC is a cyclical materials business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, though management execution is mixed and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Commercial Metals

CMC is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence shows no major fragility in what is priced in. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that estimate is medium, so the apparent relative value is not a settled conclusion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, fiscal 2026 core EBITDA rose to $1.4 billion from $837.3 million, while the core EBITDA margin expanded by 380 basis points to 14.5%, alongside continued TAG work. Precast integration is progressing, but its latest adjusted EBITDA was below management’s prior expectations amid regional residential softness; acquisition-adjusted net leverage was 1.9x against a below-2x goal. Recent momentum fell sharply, and the sector remains a headwind despite a recent earnings beat.

What Commercial Metals hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery would support the current thesis. Over the multi-year view, execution on TAG, precast earnings, and leverage reduction are key company-specific factors. Sector bellwethers such as NUE, STLD, and RS are also important signals: continued strength could sustain a sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could remove it.