Reading HCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HCC free→Reading HCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsCoking CoalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Watching for guidance changes from HCC and sector bellwethers like AMR, METC, and SXC will be important for future direction. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $93 HCC trades at 36× p/e — 1.7× the 21× p/e peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $54 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 75% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.77 (+16.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$229.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$438.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,441.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The guidance shows confidence in the business. It also shows how the market is doing.
Confirms one read:Management confirms full year 2026 guidance for coal sales of 12.5 - 13.5 million short tons.
Confirms the other:Management lowers guidance for coal sales to below 12.0 million short tons.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HCC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the Company's first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing net income through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: Updates on coal production guidance will show if Blue Creek's ramp-up continues as planned.
Confirms:Coal production guidance for Q2 exceeds 3.0 million short tons.
Disproves:Coal production guidance for Q2 is below 2.5 million short tons.
Why it matters: Strong sales show that demand is steady. This is good news for Blue Creek.
Confirms:Q2 sales are over 3.0 million short tons. This shows strong demand.
Disproves:Q2 sales are below 2.5 million short tons. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: The materials sector has been declining. A positive change could signal a recovery for Warrior Met Coal.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2% for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or stays negative.
Why it matters: Lower costs help margins and profits. This is important for financial health.
Confirms:Cash cost of sales remains below $95 per short ton, indicating effective cost control.
Disproves:Cash cost of sales rises above $110 per short ton, signaling cost pressures.
Why it matters: More net income shows that plans are working well. This helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $80M.
Disproves:Q2 net income falls below $60M.
Why it matters: Pricing trends affect revenue and profits. This is true during changing demand and supply.
Confirms one read:Steelmaking coal prices rise above $150 per short ton. This shows better market conditions.
Confirms the other:Steelmaking coal prices drop below $130 per short ton. This shows ongoing market problems.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key priority for management. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Confirms:Q2 operating income goes up from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 operating income goes down from Q1.
Why it matters: Trade conditions affect pricing and demand for steelmaking coal. Changes impact revenue outlook.
Confirms one read:Positive trade news leads to increased demand from India.
Confirms the other:Negative trade news leads to further restrictions impacting coal exports.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth and operating income are improving. Investors will look closely at these numbers.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Departure of Director or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (the “Company”) adopted the Warrior Met Coal, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2026 Equity Plan”) on February 10, 2026 and submitted the 2026 Equity Plan for stockholder approval at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of the Company on April 20, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”). The…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the Company's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing unde…