Reading WS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WS free→Reading WS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WS free→NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WS is typical in valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 WS trades at 16× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.68 (-10.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.8% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -28.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$237.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,200.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 10.1 points (from 42.6 to 52.7).
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
As of June 16, 2026, valuation rose. The signal changed from cautious to mixed.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for Worthington Steel's growth strategy. It could improve their market position and product offerings.
Confirms:The deal is done. All approvals are in by June 3, 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition fails to close or faces significant delays beyond June 3, 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K under the cover of an amendment to this Current Report on Form 8-K no later than 71 calendar days after the date on which this Current Report on Form 8-K was required to be filed. (d) Exhibits. Exhibit No. Document Description 99.1* Press Release, dated June 3, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) * The information “furnished” in this Current Report on Form 8-K under Item 7.01 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Steel.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WS Worthington Steel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NUE Nucor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
STLD Steel Dynamics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMC Commercial Metals | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Kloeckner & Co to enhance product portfolio and geographic footprint.
Identify and realize $150 million in annual cost, operational, and commercial process synergies.
Continue to provide a stable dividend of $0.16 per share to shareholders.
Worthington Steel issued $900 million in senior secured notes for the Klöckner Acquisition.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. Cutting it could mean trouble.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend remains at $0.16 for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company announces a cut to the dividend per share below $0.16.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth goes up, it may show better market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2% for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows that contraction is ongoing.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show the company is managing costs well. It is key for future profitability.
Confirms:Management reports achieving at least $75M in synergies by the next earnings call.
Disproves:The progress score is below 40%. There are no updates on synergy achievements.
Why it matters: Getting $150 million each year is key for the acquisition to succeed.
Confirms:Management says they reached at least $150 million in synergies in the first year.
Disproves:Management says synergies are much lower than expected. They are under $50 million.
Why it matters: This offer helps cut down on admin work. It also gives Worthington Steel more options.
Confirms:The Delisting Offer starts when BaFin approves it.
Disproves:The Delisting Offer is delayed or not launched as planned.
Why it matters: This debt will fund the Klöckner Acquisition. Its success impacts future financial health.
Confirms:The company closes the $900 million debt deal. It will start using the money.
Disproves:The debt deal fails or is delayed. This affects the acquisition timeline.
Why it matters: Finishing this offering is key. It helps pay for the Kloeckner Acquisition and manage debt.
Confirms:The Notes Offering ends successfully on or around June 1, 2026.
Disproves:The Notes Offering fails to close or terms change unfavorably.
in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as set forth by specific reference in such filing. Important Information This Current Report on Form 8-K and the materials included herewi…
Regulation FD Disclosure.* Notes Offering On May 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the commencement of a private offering (the “Notes Offering”) by WS Escrow LLC (the “Escrow Issuer”), a newly formed Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, of $900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its senior secured notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). If the Klöckner Acquisition is expected to be consummated within three business days of the closing o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 25, 2026, Worthington Steel, Inc. (“we,” “us,” “our” and “registrant”) issued a news release (the “Financial Release”) reporting results for the three months ended February 28, 2026 (the third quarter of fiscal 2026). A copy of the Financial Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. We will host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 26, 2026, to discuss our unaudited financial results for…
Other Events. On March 25, 2026, we issued a news release (the “Dividend Release”) reporting that our board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.16 per common share. The dividend was declared on March 25, 2026, and is payable on June 26, 2026, to our shareholders of record at the close of business on June 12, 2026. A copy of the Dividend Release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.3.