Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$104.35-1.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Warrior Met Coal grows revenue strongly, up 38% year over year. Operating income improved from a loss to $79 million in Q1 2026. Net income rose from a loss to $72 million in the same period. The company controls costs well and invests moderately in capital spending.
The stock is down nearly 30% from its high and recent earnings missed estimates. Profit margins and free cash flow remain under pressure. Analysts have cut earnings estimates recently, signaling risks to growth and profitability.
The price is about 20% above our fair value near $65, reflecting about 28% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious given recent earnings misses and downward estimate revisions.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $75 million or falls below $50 million in FY26
Breaks if: Net income falls below zero in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below zero in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable player in the Materials sector with a focus on volume growth and cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial results, but there are risks due to potential earnings misses in a high-miss-rate industry.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not a full concentration of risks. Valuation is neutral compared to peers, with a slight premium indicating that expectations are modest.
Management is on track with increasing sales and production volumes, which have shown significant growth recently. However, cost structure improvements are lagging behind, and there is a notable risk of missing earnings estimates in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and improve cost structures. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 27% in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, HCC's performance will depend on management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.