Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$85.80+3.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Warrior Met Coal, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	539M
EPS	—	2.137
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.04B
EPS	—	6.624
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.29B
EPS	—	9.749

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $62.5 million in 2026	A supporting condition in Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~62.5 million USD.	Broken	Capex exceeds $75 million or falls below $50 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $28.923M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~62.5 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202628,923,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income positive and improving	Net income rose from a loss to $72 million in the same period.	Improving	Net income falls below zero in FY26	Net income: $87.429M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202687,429,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13a935c5-8aad-470b-97ac-a7a97bbd0648. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income positive and improving	Operating income improved from a loss to $79 million in Q1 2026.	Improving	Operating income falls below zero in FY26	Operating income: $94.521M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202694,521,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13a935c5-8aad-470b-97ac-a7a97bbd0648. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 27% YoY	A primary condition in Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=27% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 27% in FY26	Revenue growth: 71.31% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=27% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202671.311126 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13a935c5-8aad-470b-97ac-a7a97bbd0648. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$7.21 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.16B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.21	$2,155,481,670	5 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	$7.21	$2,155,481,670	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$7.28	$2,160,931,620	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$7.46	$2,159,401,430	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$7.46	$2,159,401,430	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$7.46	$2,159,401,430	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$7.46	$2,159,401,430	5 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 8 · prior Jun 30

$100.00 → $102.00+2.0%

$0$56.10$112.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $62.5 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Net income positive and improvingNet income: $87.429M
Operating income positive and improvingOperating income: $94.521M
Revenue growth at or above 27% YoYRevenue growth: 71.31%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HCC is a cyclical materials business with a multi-year growth case tied to the Blue Creek mine ramp-up. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

HCC trades at a 27% premium to peers, reflecting a durable premium, while the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, rather than showing a broad valuation and execution mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, sales and production volumes are growing as Blue Creek ramps up, and free cash flow turned positive in 2026-Q2 after capital spending eased. Cash costs have fallen over time, but cost-structure execution is still marked behind; recent results have included two misses followed by an August earnings beat, and near-term risk remains elevated against a sector headwind.

What Warrior Met Coal, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case hinges on continued Blue Creek volume growth, better cost execution, and sustained free cash flow generation. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers AMR, METC, and AREC would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.