NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-07-23
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Create your account →A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is currently experiencing loss-making conditions but has stable management and a focus on improving profitability.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a cheap stance compared to peers. However, there is a negative expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate further challenges.
Management is focused on maintaining capital expenditures and steel shipment volumes, which have been steady. Recent financial performance has been weak, but there are signs of improvement in operating income and profitability.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers like NUE and STLD. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CLF's outlook will depend on its ability to navigate current headwinds and improve its financial performance. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a significant concern. Recent financial performance is below industry peers. This suggests ongoing challenges for the company.
as of 2026-07-23
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow would signal a return to strong earnings and cash generation.
Confirms:Cleveland-Cliffs makes positive free cash flow in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A good deal could improve Cliffs' market position. It may also increase shareholder value.
Confirms:There is an announcement of a deal with POSCO.
Disproves:No updates on talks with POSCO.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is in good financial shape. It also shows it runs better.
Confirms:Q2 cash flow from operations reported as positive.
Disproves:Q2 cash flow from operations remains negative.
Why it matters: Higher prices would lead to better revenue and profits. This shows the market is improving.
Confirms:Average selling price per net ton of steel products increases above $1,048.
Disproves:Average selling price per net ton of steel products declines below $1,048.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows better performance. It also shows better cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is over $95 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is below $95 million.
Why it matters: Consistent shipment volumes show strong demand. This helps meet the full-year target of 16.5-17.0 million net tons.
Confirms:Steel shipment volumes reported around 4.0 million net tons in Q3.
Disproves:Steel shipment volumes reported below 3.8 million net tons in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending at $700 million shows smart use of money. This helps future growth.
Confirms:Capital spending was at or near $700 million.
Disproves:Capital spending was much less than $700 million.
