Nucor (NUE)

NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-15

$256.29+0.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nucor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

19.64 → 20.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return capital of at least $250M via dividends and buybacks in 2026-Q1	The company returns capital steadily with $0.56 dividend per share and $250M in buybacks.	Intact	Capital returned falls below $250M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Nucor returned $733M to stockholders in the first half of 2026 through dividends and repurchases, including $479M in Q2 alone. The company declared its 213th consecutive quarterly dividend in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes capital return, and financials confirm active delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders >= $743M in 2026-Q1	Nucor is growing earnings strongly across steel segments.	Intact	Net earnings fall below $156M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Net income: $1.156B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 743 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 20261,156,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4a72af7d-2e09-4867-92b2-cd3199917eb9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. Net earnings before noncontrolling interests increased from $706M in 2025-Q2 to $1.28B in 2026-Q2. Management highlights sequential earnings growth across all segments in 2026-Q1 and Q2, with the steel mills segment setting shipment records. The trajectory shows delivering earnings growth consistent with stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Pre-operating costs related to growth projects decline to $108M in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Nucor's published investment case. The stated target is <= 108 million USD.	Under Pressure	Pre-operating costs rise above $170M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $7.83B in 2025-Q1 to $10.40B in 2026-Q2, and net earnings attributable to stockholders increased from $156M to $1.16B over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes growth through investments and project ramp-ups, and the financials show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Steel mills segment earnings >= $1,128M in 2026-Q1	Steel pricing outlook and demand support earnings growth.	Intact	Steel mills segment earnings fall below $231M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. Net earnings before noncontrolling interests increased from $706M in 2025-Q2 to $1.28B in 2026-Q2. Management highlights sequential earnings growth across all segments in 2026-Q1 and Q2, with the steel mills segment setting shipment records. The trajectory shows delivering earnings growth consistent with stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$20.44

$17.42 → $20.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$42.25B

$39.67B → $42.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.42	$39,673,639,255	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$17.38	$39,611,430,090	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$17.38	$39,611,430,090	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$17.38	$39,611,430,090	13 / 12
2026-07-28	$17.52	$39,824,817,294	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$17.60	$39,781,206,690	13 / 12
2026-07-30	$18.15	$40,830,592,789	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$18.14	$40,712,980,370	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$18.15	$40,830,592,789	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$18.23	$40,812,610,350	14 / 14
2026-08-03	$18.23	$40,812,610,350	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$18.23	$40,812,610,350	14 / 14
2026-08-05	$18.83	$40,518,824,630	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$18.83	$40,518,824,630	13 / 14
2026-08-09	$18.83	$40,518,824,630	13 / 14
2026-08-10	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$18.83	$40,518,824,630	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	11 / 11
2026-08-15	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$18.26	$40,928,838,955	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$18.95	$40,612,454,882	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$18.95	$40,612,454,882	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$18.95	$40,612,454,882	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$18.95	$40,612,454,882	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$18.95	$40,612,454,882	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$18.93	$40,650,839,497	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$18.98	$40,834,159,455	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$19.17	$40,982,771,418	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$19.17	$40,982,771,418	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$19.34	$41,078,982,478	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$19.34	$41,078,982,478	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$19.34	$41,078,982,478	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$19.64	$41,254,317,745	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$19.64	$41,254,317,745	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$19.64	$41,254,317,745	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$19.64	$41,254,317,745	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$19.64	$41,254,317,745	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$19.50	$41,277,332,478	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$19.51	$41,280,206,355	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$19.51	$41,280,206,355	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$19.51	$41,280,206,355	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$19.59	$41,280,206,355	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$19.59	$41,280,206,355	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$19.59	$41,280,206,355	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$19.59	$41,280,206,355	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$19.68	$41,656,039,689	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$19.68	$41,656,039,689	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$19.68	$41,656,039,689	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$19.77	$41,837,816,689	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$19.77	$41,837,816,689	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$19.77	$41,837,816,689	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$19.77	$41,837,816,689	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$19.77	$41,837,816,689	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$20.25	$42,119,314,566	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$20.25	$42,119,314,566	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$20.25	$42,119,314,566	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$20.44	$42,253,118,733	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$20.44	$42,253,118,733	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	3	1
2026-06-01	14	3	1
2026-07-01	14	3	1
2026-08-01	14	3	0
2026-09-01	14	4	1
2026-10-01	13	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 5 · prior Jun 24

$274.00 → $286.00+4.4%

Wells FargoSep 18 · prior Jul 29

$297.00 → $280.00-5.7%

$0$163.35$326.70

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return capital of at least $250M via dividends and buybacks in 2026-Q1Required source inputs unavailable
Net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders >= $743M in 2026-Q1Net income: $1.156B
Pre-operating costs related to growth projects decline to $108M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Steel mills segment earnings >= $1,128M in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nucor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and capital return. The current thesis state is intact, supported by solid financial performance and management priorities.

What's priced into Nucor

The market appears to have a neutral view on Nucor's valuation, with a slight expectations gap indicating that it is priced in line with peers. The company is seen as justified in its current valuation despite some fragility in execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Nucor's fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given its strong revenue growth and commitment to capital returns. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, which could impact future performance.

What Nucor hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its growth strategy and maintain capital returns. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance from sector peers will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.