Steel Dynamics (STLD)

NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-10-15

$240.54-0.09%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Steel Dynamics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+7.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.07 → 21.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS guidance near $3.53 per share for next quarter	Analysts expect earnings per share near $3.53 next quarter.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $3.51 per share next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage risks from AI capital spending and macro headwinds	A supporting condition in Steel Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is No major AI capex disruptions and stable macro environment.	Under Pressure	Significant AI capex failures or worsening macro conditions	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete ownership of New Process Steel	The company owns all of New Process Steel, improving control.	Intact	Ownership stake falls below 100%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Steel shipments reach 3.6 million tons and backlog grows 38% YoY	Steel Dynamics sells more steel with record shipments of 3.6 million tons.	Intact	Steel shipments fall below 3.6 million tons or backlog growth below 20% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Steel shipments increased to a record 3.7 million tons in 2026-Q2 from 3.6 million tons in 2026-Q1. Operating income from steel operations rose from $557 million in 2026-Q1 to $721 million in 2026-Q2. Management consistently cites strengthening fundamentals supported by trade actions and reshoring. The trajectory is delivering with improving shipments, pricing, and demand. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.58

$19.33 → $21.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.90B

$23.57B → $24.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$19.33	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-07-26	$19.33	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-07-28	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-07-31	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-08-01	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-08-04	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$18.86	$23,362,313,800	12 / 10
2026-08-12	$19.02	$23,550,233,220	13 / 11
2026-08-13	$19.02	$23,550,233,220	13 / 11
2026-08-14	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 7
2026-08-16	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$19.34	$23,565,932,239	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$19.47	$23,752,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$19.47	$23,752,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$19.47	$23,752,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$19.47	$23,752,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$19.47	$23,752,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$19.39	$23,742,281,753	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$19.59	$23,833,602,253	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$19.59	$23,833,602,253	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$19.85	$23,934,158,362	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$19.85	$23,934,158,362	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$19.85	$23,934,158,362	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$20.07	$24,047,127,322	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$20.07	$24,047,127,322	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$20.07	$24,047,127,322	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$20.07	$24,047,127,322	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$20.07	$24,047,127,322	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$20.06	$24,157,085,583	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$20.07	$24,167,479,031	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$20.07	$24,167,479,031	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$20.07	$24,167,479,031	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$20.17	$24,167,479,031	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$20.17	$24,167,479,031	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$20.17	$24,167,479,031	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$20.17	$24,167,479,031	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$20.32	$24,322,979,031	8 / 7
2026-10-04	$20.32	$24,322,979,031	8 / 7
2026-10-05	$20.49	$24,430,980,938	8 / 7
2026-10-06	$20.49	$24,486,534,756	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$20.49	$24,486,534,756	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$20.49	$24,486,534,756	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$20.49	$24,486,534,756	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$20.49	$24,486,534,756	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$21.18	$24,767,236,428	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$21.18	$24,767,236,428	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$21.18	$24,767,236,428	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$21.58	$24,897,037,550	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$21.58	$24,897,037,550	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	3	1
2026-06-01	8	3	1
2026-07-01	9	3	1
2026-08-01	9	4	1
2026-09-01	9	4	1
2026-10-01	9	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 18 · prior Jul 22

$275.00 → $257.00-6.5%

$0$151.25$302.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS guidance near $3.53 per share for next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Manage risks from AI capital spending and macro headwindsPublished status: Under Pressure
Complete ownership of New Process SteelDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Steel shipments reach 3.6 million tons and backlog grows 38% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Steel Dynamics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding operations in aluminum and strengthening its steel market position. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, but management execution remains volatile.

What's priced into Steel Dynamics

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. STLD is currently trading at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some positive performance is already anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength in steel shipments and operating income, driven by management's focus on domestic demand and capital allocation. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, which could impact future performance.

What Steel Dynamics hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, as well as external factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers. Positive developments in these areas could bolster STLD's momentum.