Reading APD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APD free→Reading APD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APD free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If APD reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit, which is a key factor to watch.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $282.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $283 APD trades at 30× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $246 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $310–$360. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.32 → $3.34 (+0.5% / 30d). 10 raised, 5 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,239.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This charge reflects the company's exit from three U.S. projects. It will show how management is handling project cancellations.
Confirms:The pre-tax charge reported is at or below $3.1 billion.
Disproves:The pre-tax charge exceeds $3.1 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$310.00 – $360.00 (median $335.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APD Air Products | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · -9.5% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Air Products continues to expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $4.0 billion.
Air Products raised its fiscal 2026 full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00 to $13.25.
Air Products provided fiscal 2026 third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25 to $3.35.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS guidance goes up, it shows strong earnings. This may boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises the adjusted EPS guidance for the full year.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps the current adjusted EPS guidance the same.
Why it matters: Staying under the capital spending target may show problems with projects and investments.
Confirms:Capital spending is reported to be below $4 billion.
Disproves:Capital spending goes over $4 billion.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 23, 2025, Lisa A. Davis notified Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (the “Company”) that, for personal reasons, she had decided to not stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) and to retire from the Board at the conclusion of the Annual Meetin…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise be subject to liability under that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth therein.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 18, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Howard Ungerleider as a director of the Company, effective September 1, 2025. Mr. Ungerleider, 56, is an Operating Advisor at Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, a leading private equity firm, and previously served from 2018 to 2023 as Preside…