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Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$322.44+0.69%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from SHW and the performance of sector bellwethers like LIN, ECL, and APD. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $78.26B
- Employees
- 64,249
- IPO date
- 1994-03-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $322.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$239.66consensus
Range $189.89 – $266.58
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$303.89consensus
Range $224.08 – $407.25
vs price: +6% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $322 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $240 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $330–$410. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
27.9x
peer 20.8x · own history 29.1x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
35%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$239.66
range $189.89 – $263.73
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
63rd pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
38th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish19 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.50 → $3.52 (+0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,155.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for adjusted EPS to remain within $11.50 to $11.90 range
Why it matters: Keeping this EPS guidance shows strong earnings and good cost management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted diluted net income per share reported within the $11.50 to $11.90 range.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted net income per share was below $11.50.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-04-281mo agoMarket Screener
Advances: Increase net sales by low to mid-single digit percentage in 2026
Sales growth aligns with sales increase objective.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, ECL, and APD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting SHW and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SHW raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SHW cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like LIN, ECL, and APD start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping SHW and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SHW and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (“Sherwin-Williams”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 11 to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 11”) with Goldman Sachs Bank USA (“Goldman”), as administrative agent, Goldman Sachs Mortgage Company (“GSMC”), as issuing bank, and the lenders party thereto. Amendment No. 11 amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of August 2, 2021 (as amended, the “C…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.