Reading ALB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALB free→Reading ALB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALB free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 126% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $166.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $169, ALB's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 72× p/e (3.5× the 21× p/e peer median, and 1.5× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~131% near-term growth vs our ~10% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $73 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $153–$264. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 131% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.39 → $3.07 (+28.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 2 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$236.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$654.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,188.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows that Albemarle runs well and controls costs.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was over $600 million. This shows strong performance.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was below $600 million. This points to problems in operations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Accounting Officer — Donald J. LaBauve Jr.: The former Chief Accounting Officer retired and an interim Principal Accounting Officer was appointed.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$153.00 – $264.00 (median $227.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALB Albemarle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Albemarle aims to maintain its revenue guidance for 2026 between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion.
Albemarle aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDA target of $0.9 to $1.0 billion for 2026.
Albemarle plans to maintain capital expenditures flat at $550 million to $600 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Stable prices above this level would help revenue growth and improve margins in Energy Storage.
Confirms:Average lithium market price was above $20/kg for two months in a row.
Disproves:Average lithium market price drops below $20/kg for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: A smooth change will help keep finances stable and maintain investor trust.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a permanent CFO appointment by the end of Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:More delays in hiring a permanent CFO show that management is not stable.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment would indicate effective pricing and volume strategies.
Confirms:Specialties revenue growth reported above 15% YoY in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Specialties revenue growth reported below 15% YoY in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Albemarle Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. In addition, on May 7, 2026, the Company will hold a teleconference for analysts and media to discuss results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The teleconference will be webcast on the Company…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As reported in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, Donald J. LaBauve Jr. advised Albemarle Corporation (the “Company ”) of his intent to retire from his position as Chief Accounting Officer, effective June 1, 2026, following more than 36 years of service to the Company. Mr. LaBauve’s retirement is not the result of any dispute or disagreement with the Company, including with resp…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 19, 2026, Albemarle Corporation (the “Company”), Albemarle Europe Srl, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, entered into the third amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to that certain amended and restated credit agreement dated as of October 28, 2022, as previously amended on February 9, 2024 and October 31, 2024 (the “2022 Credit Agreement”). The Third Amendment modifies the 2022 Credit Agreement by, a…