Albemarle Corporation (ALB)

Q: What's priced into Albemarle Corporation (ALB) stock?

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below historical norms. The current premium compared to peers suggests that investors are not overly optimistic but are also not expecting significant declines.

Q: What does the Albemarle Corporation (ALB) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could influence ALB's trajectory.

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$95.48-2.75%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Albemarle Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.81 → 10.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $0.9B to $1.0B in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA rose from $267M to $664M in the same period.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $900 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is $0.9 to $1.0 billion. Actual adjusted EBITDA increased from $664 million in 2026-Q1 to $858 million in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward the target. The trajectory is delivering consistent improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain capital expenditures between $550M and $600M in 2026	A supporting condition in Albemarle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $550 million and <= $600 million.	Broken	Capital expenditures exceed $600 million or fall below $550 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $71.731M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $550 million and <= $600 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202671,731,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue between $4.1B and $4.3B in 2026	A primary condition in Albemarle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.1 billion and <= $4.3 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $4.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.743B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.1 billion and <= $4.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261,743,313,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 69af1ab0-e0e4-44b3-86b4-916ed2d52670. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management maintained net sales guidance of $4.1 to $4.3 billion for 2026. Actual revenue grew from $1.43 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.74 billion in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory is delivering against the stated revenue target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.22

$12.51 → $10.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.22B

$6.54B → $6.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.51	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-25	$11.89	$6,534,382,767	10 / 14
2026-07-26	$12.52	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-27	$11.68	$6,523,770,222	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$12.52	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-29	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-07-30	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-07-31	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-01	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-02	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-03	$11.64	$6,539,770,222	10 / 14
2026-08-04	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-05	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-06	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-07	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-09	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-10	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-11	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$11.52	$6,380,992,220	18 / 18
2026-08-13	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$9.76	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$9.76	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$9.50	$6,104,823,091	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$9.49	$6,105,073,091	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$9.61	$6,105,073,091	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$9.61	$6,106,100,336	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$9.61	$6,106,100,336	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$10.03	$6,166,189,870	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$10.03	$6,166,189,870	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$9.95	$6,152,334,471	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$9.92	$6,152,334,471	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$10.22	$6,217,801,138	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	13
2026-06-01	14	12
2026-07-01	13	10
2026-08-01	13	9
2026-09-01	13	9
2026-10-01	14	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 17

$166.00 → $129.00-22.3%

BarclaysOct 12

$109.00New observation · no comparable prior

Argus ResearchOct 7 · prior May 11

$230.00 → $135.00-41.3%

BMO CapitalOct 6

$175.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 7

$175.00 → $150.00-14.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 1

$130.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$126.50$253.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $0.9B to $1.0B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain capital expenditures between $550M and $600M in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain revenue between $4.1B and $4.3B in 2026Revenue: $1.743B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Albemarle Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state indicates a cautious approach due to recent volatility in management and performance metrics.

What's priced into Albemarle Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below historical norms. The current premium compared to peers suggests that investors are not overly optimistic but are also not expecting significant declines.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, which is a positive sign. However, the company remains loss-making, and recent financial performance has not outpaced its industry peers, indicating potential challenges ahead.

What Albemarle Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could influence ALB's trajectory.

Bottom line

In the next 1 to 3 years, ALB's performance will depend on its execution against targets and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.22

$12.51 → $10.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.22B

$6.54B → $6.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.51	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-25	$11.89	$6,534,382,767	10 / 14
2026-07-26	$12.52	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-27	$11.68	$6,523,770,222	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$12.52	$6,541,114,830	18 / 18
2026-07-29	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-07-30	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-07-31	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-01	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-02	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-03	$11.64	$6,539,770,222	10 / 14
2026-08-04	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-05	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-06	$12.47	$6,556,225,940	18 / 18
2026-08-07	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-09	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-10	$12.74	$6,487,227,420	16 / 18
2026-08-11	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$11.52	$6,380,992,220	18 / 18
2026-08-13	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$11.66	$6,549,711,398	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$10.26	$6,330,751,998	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$10.06	$6,295,340,234	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$9.76	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$9.76	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$9.81	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$9.80	$6,179,173,998	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$9.50	$6,104,823,091	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$9.49	$6,105,073,091	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$9.61	$6,105,073,091	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$9.61	$6,106,100,336	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$9.61	$6,106,100,336	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$10.03	$6,166,189,870	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$10.03	$6,166,189,870	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$9.95	$6,152,334,471	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$9.92	$6,152,334,471	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$10.22	$6,217,801,138	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings