Reading AXTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXTA free→Reading AXTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AXTA free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AXTA compared to sector peers being above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends from bellwethers like LIN, SHW, and ECL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 AXTA trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $29–$36. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,848.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows financial health. It helps with future investments and paying off debt.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $500 million for FY 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $500 million for FY 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: M&A with Akzo Nobel
Concerns over Akzo Nobel merger impact growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment No. 1 to Merger Agreement As previously disclosed, on November 18, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., an exempted company incorporated under the laws of Bermuda (“Axalta” or the “Company”), entered into a Merger Agreement (the “Original Merger Agreement”) with Akzo Nobel N.V., a public company with limited liability ( naamloze vennootschap ) incorporated under the laws of the Netherlands (“AkzoNobel” and, after giving effect to the Merger,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$29.00 – $36.00 (median $31.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AXTA Axalta | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the merger process with Akzo Nobel as per the amended agreement.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities.
Adhere to the capital expenditure guidance range for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Axalta can keep making money despite rising costs.
Confirms:Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was between $280 million and $290 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $280 million.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for stable revenue during market challenges.
Confirms:Performance Coatings net sales reported to grow year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Performance Coatings net sales decline year over year in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. ("Axalta") issued a press release and posted an earnings call presentation to its website reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purpo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. issued a press release and posted an earnings call presentation to its website reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for…