Axalta (AXTA)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.14-2.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Axalta’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.87 → 2.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.31B
EPS	—	0.648
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.24B
EPS	—	2.623
Capital expenditure	$180M–$200M	—
Free cash flow	Over $500M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.4B
EPS	—	2.833

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance merger with Akzo Nobel as planned	The merger with Akzo Nobel could add growth potential.	Under Pressure	Merger process stalls or is cancelled	Merger active but under UK regulatory review Amendment No. 2 to Merger Agreement filed July 2026; UK CMA review initiated September 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, 2025-Q4, and a recent 8-K in 2026-08. Net sales grew from $1.305B in 2025-Q2 to $1.35B in 2026-Q2 (+3%). The merger with Akzo Nobel is on track with shareholder approval secured and expected closing late 2026 to early 2027, delivering on management's stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain CAPEX between $180M and $200M in FY26	The company is managing capital well, targeting CAPEX between $180M and $200M in 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $210 million or falls below $170 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $180M to $200M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202648,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has reiterated the capital expenditure guidance of $180 million to $200 million for fiscal year 2026 in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. This consistent guidance reflects disciplined capital allocation. Actual capital expenditures were $196 million in 2025, indicating management is maintaining the targeted range, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve cash from operations to at least $68M per quarter	Cash from operations improved strongly to $68M in Q1 2026 from $26M a year ago.	Improving	cash from operations falls below $50 million per quarter	Cash from operations: $152M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $68 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026152,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 4% annually	A primary condition in Axalta's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.83

$2.82 → $2.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.40B

$5.39B → $5.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.82	$5,392,981,950	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$2.82	$5,392,981,950	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$2.82	$5,392,981,950	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$2.82	$5,392,981,950	16 / 15
2026-07-28	$2.82	$5,392,981,950	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$2.82	$5,396,228,620	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$2.82	$5,396,228,620	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$2.82	$5,396,228,620	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$2.86	$5,409,061,280	16 / 15
2026-08-02	$2.86	$5,409,074,610	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$2.86	$5,409,074,610	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$2.86	$5,409,074,610	16 / 15
2026-08-05	$2.86	$5,409,074,610	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$2.86	$5,409,074,610	16 / 15
2026-08-07	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-11	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-13	$2.85	$5,403,807,950	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$2.86	$5,415,228,429	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$2.85	$5,414,310,324	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$2.86	$5,410,141,468	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$2.86	$5,410,131,203	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$2.86	$5,410,131,203	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$2.87	$5,408,064,662	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$2.87	$5,408,044,399	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$2.87	$5,403,109,674	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$2.87	$5,402,596,183	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$2.87	$5,402,596,183	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$2.87	$5,402,596,183	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$2.87	$5,402,596,183	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$2.87	$5,402,596,183	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$2.86	$5,397,270,139	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$2.86	$5,397,270,139	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$2.86	$5,397,270,139	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$2.86	$5,397,270,139	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$2.86	$5,397,270,139	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$2.86	$5,395,663,639	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$2.86	$5,395,663,639	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$2.85	$5,395,711,317	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$2.85	$5,395,711,317	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$2.85	$5,395,711,317	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$2.85	$5,395,721,581	10 / 12
2026-10-17	$2.85	$5,395,721,581	10 / 12
2026-10-18	$2.85	$5,395,409,081	10 / 12
2026-10-19	$2.85	$5,395,409,081	10 / 12
2026-10-20	$2.85	$5,395,409,081	10 / 12
2026-10-21	$2.84	$5,393,176,861	10 / 12
2026-10-22	$2.83	$5,398,510,890	10 / 12
2026-10-23	$2.83	$5,398,510,890	10 / 12
2026-10-24	$2.83	$5,398,510,890	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	9
2026-06-01	6	9
2026-07-01	6	9
2026-08-01	6	9
2026-09-01	7	9
2026-10-01	8	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 12

$45.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 9 · prior May 1

$36.00 → $38.00+5.6%

$0$24.75$49.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Advance merger with Akzo Nobel as plannedPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain CAPEX between $180M and $200M in FY26Capital expenditures: $48M
Improve cash from operations to at least $68M per quarterCash from operations: $152M
Sustain revenue growth near 4% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Axalta outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a steady-execution business with a merger-related growth opportunity, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, though recent performance is neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Axalta

The valuation evidence points to AXTA being cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and no flagged signs of fragile pricing. Valuation has risen recently, but the overall pricing signal remains justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results have held in the top half of the industry, and the latest reported quarter included an earnings beat. Management remains on track with the Akzo Nobel merger and capital spending plan; free cash flow progress is positive, but the full-year target is not yet confirmed.

What Axalta hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on avoiding a guidance cut and completing the merger on the stated timeline. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance are another swing factor: continued strength could support the Materials backdrop, while misses could weaken it.