Reading BCPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCPC free→Reading BCPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCPC free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If BCPC cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $163.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $164 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $110 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.41 → $1.43 (+1.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,503.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Exceeding last quarter's growth shows strong momentum across all segments. It confirms ongoing demand and effective strategies.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth exceeds 8.1% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth falls below 8.1% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BCPC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Balchem Corporation reported earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and certain other information. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BCPC Balchem Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Focus on achieving ongoing above-market revenue growth.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management.
Aim to improve gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost control and pricing power. This can help make more money.
Confirms:Gross margin improves above 37.3% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin declines below 37.3% in Q2.
Why it matters: A shift to positive revenue growth in the materials sector could signal a broader recovery. This may benefit Balchem's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 20, 2026, Balchem Corporation, reported earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, and certain other information. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), as amended, or otherwise subject to t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As previously announced by Balchem Corporation (the “Company”) on March 3, 2025, William A. Backus, Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, is retiring from his position on March 31, 2026. On February 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company elected Erin L. Gilson to serve as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective April 1…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2025, Balchem Corporation reported earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and certain other information. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities…