Reading EMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EMN free→Reading EMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EMN free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach to managing resources. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 EMN trades at 16× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $101 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $75–$88. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.73 → $1.81 (+4.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 4 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$323.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,000.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend payments shows financial health. It gives investors confidence in cash flow.
Confirms:Management says the next dividend payment will happen on time.
Disproves:Management says there will be a delay or cut in the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EMN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, the registrant publicly released its financial results for first quarter 2026. The full text of the release is furnished as Exhibit 99.01 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$75.00 – $88.00 (median $82.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EMN Eastman Chemical Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -0.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue efforts to reduce costs across operations to improve financial performance.
Improve cash flow from operations to support financial stability and growth.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company is managing costs and sales. It reflects the impact of price increases and improved sales volume.
Confirms:In the second quarter, adjusted EPS was between $1.70 and $1.90.
Disproves:In the second quarter, adjusted EPS was less than $1.70.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow would show progress in management's goal to enhance operations. It is crucial for financial health.
Confirms:Q2 cash flow from operations turns positive, exceeding $0.
Disproves:Q2 cash flow from operations remains negative, worse than -$137M.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show that management cares about giving value to shareholders. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.84 or increases in Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share decreases from $0.84 in Q1.
Why it matters: Improvements here are important for revenue growth. They show that market demand is recovering.
Confirms:Sales volume and mix in Advanced Materials increased from the last period.
Disproves:Sales volume and mix in Advanced Materials went down or stayed the same.
Why it matters: These savings are important for better margins and cash flow. This is key during inflation and market issues.
Confirms:Management says they cut costs by at least $125 million.
Disproves:Cost reductions fall short of $125 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if cash flow from operations is improving. This is key for the company's financial health.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations increasing by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations declining or flat year over year.
Why it matters: The materials sector is declining. Better revenue growth could mean a recovery for Eastman.
Confirms:Materials sector reports positive revenue growth for the first time in over a year.
Disproves:The materials sector still shows negative revenue growth.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important to make more money after recent income drops. This will affect future earnings.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 improves compared to $136M in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income declines further from $136M in Q1.
Why it matters: Management is focused on cutting costs. This is important for better profit margins.
Confirms:Management reports a reduction in costs by at least 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Management says that cost-cutting efforts have stopped or gotten worse.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for funding dividends and investments. It shows the company's financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported close to $970 million, the 2025 level.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is well below $970 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 20, 2026, Eastman Chemical Company (the “Company”) issued $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.500% Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) in a public offering (the “Notes Offering”) pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-280083) and a preliminary prospectus supplement and prospectus supplement related to the offering of the Notes, each as previously filed with the SEC. The Notes were issued under an indenture, date…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, the registrant publicly released its financial results for fourth quarter 2025. The full text of the release is furnished as Exhibit 99.01 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Chris M. Killian, Senior Vice President - Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer, has provided notice that he plans to retire at the end of the year due to family and health considerations, effective as of December 31, 2025. In light of Mr. Killian’s retirement and to ensure a smooth transition, Stephen G. Crawford, former Executive Vice Presid…