Reading ESI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESI free→Reading ESI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESI free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If ESI cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 ESI trades at 29× p/e — 1.4× the 21× p/e peer median, and above its own 18× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $28 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $35–$52. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 60% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.43 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 6 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$367.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,784.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this goal shows good performance. It helps revenue grow.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA lands at or above $170 million.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA is less than $155 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Element Solutions Inc ("Element Solutions") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. To supplement the financial measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"), Element Solutions presents certain non-GAAP fi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $52.00 (median $39.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESI Element Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth across the company's operations.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Commitment to maintaining consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps the company's finances.
Confirms:Operating income increases to at least $120 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $100 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean the materials sector is improving.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows good financial health and care for shareholders.
Confirms:A dividend payment that is the same or higher than last quarter.
Disproves:A company announced it will cut or stop its dividend.
Why it matters: Growth in Electronics shows a need for high-performance solutions. This helps overall revenue.
Confirms:Organic net sales growth in Electronics exceeds 15% in Q2.
Disproves:Organic net sales growth in Electronics falls below 10% in Q2.
Why it matters: Signs of growth in the materials sector could benefit Element Solutions. This may improve their revenue outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 2% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in metal prices can greatly affect profits and earnings.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show resilience despite metals price increases.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings decline due to adverse metals price swings.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show new plans for spending money. This is important for shareholder trust.
Confirms one read:Dividend is increased from $0.08 per share in Q2.
Confirms the other:Dividend is cut below $0.08 per share in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On March 23, 2026, Sir Martin E. Franklin, a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Element Solutions Inc (the "Company") and currently Executive Chairman of the Board, has informed the Board of his decision not to seek reelection as a director and will retire from the Board at the expiration of his current term, as of the date of th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Element Solutions Inc ("Element Solutions") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. To supplement financial measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. ("GAAP"), Element Solutions presents certain no…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Incremental Term Loans & Revolver Upsize On February 2, 2026 (the "Effective Date"), Element Solutions Inc (the "Company"), MacDermid, Incorporated ("MacDermid," and together with the Company, the "Borrowers"), certain subsidiaries of the Company party thereto, Citibank, N.A., as collateral agent and administrative agent (the "Agent"), and the lenders party thereto, entered into an Amendment No. 10 and Joinder to Credit Agreement ("Amendment No. 10"…
Other Events. On the Effective Date, the Company issued a press release announcing the completion of the Company's acquisition of Micromax as well as the New Terms Loans and the New Revolving Credit Facility. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.