Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.93-0.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Eastman Chemical Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.87 → 6.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$1.97non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.17B
EPS	—	1.334
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.27B
EPS	—	6.312
Operating cash flow	$900M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.44B
EPS	—	6.653

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive cash flow from operations	Management focuses on cost cuts and cash flow improvement, which could boost profits.	Under Pressure	Cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $224M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026224,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improved operating income above $136M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Eastman Chemical Company's published investment case. The stated target is >136 USD_MILLIONS.	Under Pressure	Operating income stays below $136M over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $310M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >136 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026310,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payments near $0.84 per share	Eastman Chemical keeps a strong dividend, paying about $0.84 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.80	Dividend per share: $0.84 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.84 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.84 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f435a218-fbb6-445e-8b51-e32dcbce300f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently returned $96 million per quarter to shareholders via dividends and maintained a commitment to capital return and investment-grade balance sheet. Dividend per share remained stable at $0.84 in 2026-Q2, indicating delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS growth to at least $6.31 in FY26	Analysts expect earnings per share near $6.31 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.59 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.31 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261.59 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f435a218-fbb6-445e-8b51-e32dcbce300f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.65

$6.87 → $6.65 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.44B

$9.35B → $9.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.87	$9,350,656,450	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$6.87	$9,350,656,450	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$6.87	$9,350,656,450	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$6.84	$9,367,911,250	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$6.84	$9,367,911,250	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$6.84	$9,367,911,250	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$6.87	$9,350,656,450	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$6.82	$9,396,818,943	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$6.82	$9,396,818,943	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$6.87	$9,380,736,970	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$6.92	$9,415,368,010	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$6.93	$9,433,644,930	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$6.93	$9,433,644,930	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-11	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$6.93	$9,433,644,930	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$6.93	$9,433,644,930	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$6.82	$9,395,654,535	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$6.89	$9,462,504,904	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$6.87	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$6.88	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$6.88	$9,451,754,553	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$6.85	$9,448,265,790	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$6.85	$9,448,265,790	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$6.81	$9,441,508,019	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$6.80	$9,441,508,019	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$6.80	$9,441,508,019	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$6.80	$9,441,508,019	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$6.80	$9,441,508,019	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$6.75	$9,453,455,347	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$6.77	$9,446,359,704	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$6.73	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$6.73	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$6.73	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$6.73	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$6.68	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$6.68	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$6.68	$9,447,888,276	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$6.67	$9,446,082,702	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$6.65	$9,443,868,416	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$6.65	$9,443,848,102	9 / 11
2026-10-24	$6.65	$9,443,848,102	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	6
2026-06-01	9	6
2026-07-01	9	6
2026-08-01	9	6
2026-09-01	9	7
2026-10-01	9	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior May 4

$80.00 → $68.00-15.0%

BarclaysOct 12

$72.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 3

$92.00 → $77.00-16.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 1 · prior May 1

$85.00 → $80.00-5.9%

JefferiesSep 25

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$50.60$101.20

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive cash flow from operationsPublished status: Under Pressure
Improved operating income above $136M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain dividend payments near $0.84 per shareDividend per share: $0.84 per share
EPS growth to at least $6.31 in FY26Diluted EPS: $1.59 per share

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Eastman Chemical Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EMN is a cyclical materials company with a cost-improvement and innovation-led growth case, rather than a clean, steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and company momentum has weakened.

What's priced into Eastman Chemical Company

The evidence describes EMN as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative and the pricing tag is justified. That suggests the valuation reflects the business risks, but the snapshot does not provide enough detail to say how much future improvement is already assumed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, performance is neutral, with two recent earnings beats but a meaningful drop in company momentum. Management is on track with its cost-reduction goal, while progress on innovation-led growth and capital spending is mixed; the Kingsport facility has contributed incremental earnings. A guidance cut remains a key near-term risk, despite the stated low miss risk.

What Eastman Chemical Company hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management continuing to deliver cost savings and turning innovation projects into sustained growth. Sector bellwethers such as LIN, SHW, and ECL are important signals: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.