Sherwin-Williams (SHW)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$335.20-0.51%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sherwin-Williams’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.59 → 13.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
adjusted EPS in range $11.50 to $11.90 for 2026	A primary condition in Sherwin-Williams's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $11.50 and $11.90.	Broken	adjusted EPS falls below $11.50 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
successful implementation of targeted price increases across all businesses	Sherwin-Williams grows sales about 5% yearly, helped by price increases.	Intact	price increases are rolled back or fail to offset cost pressures	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently emphasized targeted price increases across businesses to offset inflation. Paint Stores Group net sales increased by mid-single digit percentages due to price increases, including an 8% announced hike effective September 1, 2026. This indicates delivery on pricing actions supporting margin management. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
net sales increase by low to mid-single digit percentage in 2026	A primary condition in Sherwin-Williams's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20267.519202 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c22fbfd9-2793-472e-a573-2d68b8cbea00. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Consolidated net sales grew 7.5% year-over-year to $6.79 billion in 2026-Q2, following prior guidance of low to mid-single digit growth for full year 2026. Management raised full year 2026 sales guidance to mid to high-single digit growth, indicating delivery and upward trajectory on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.53

$13.27 → $13.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$26.25B

$25.87B → $26.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.27	$25,866,507,456	14 / 17
2026-07-25	$13.27	$25,866,507,456	14 / 17
2026-07-26	$13.30	$25,843,011,620	23 / 22
2026-07-27	$13.30	$25,843,011,620	23 / 22
2026-07-28	$13.27	$25,866,507,456	14 / 16
2026-07-29	$13.32	$25,873,575,260	23 / 22
2026-07-30	$13.32	$25,873,575,260	23 / 22
2026-07-31	$13.52	$26,204,289,840	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$13.52	$26,204,289,840	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$13.57	$26,197,737,440	23 / 22
2026-08-03	$13.57	$26,197,737,440	23 / 22
2026-08-04	$13.52	$26,204,289,840	13 / 16
2026-08-05	$13.59	$26,210,827,110	24 / 23
2026-08-06	$13.59	$26,210,827,110	24 / 23
2026-08-08	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-09	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$13.59	$26,210,827,110	24 / 23
2026-08-12	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$13.60	$26,233,437,440	24 / 22
2026-08-14	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$13.54	$26,219,653,477	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-21	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$13.56	$26,264,335,261	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$13.58	$26,276,407,641	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-05	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-06	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-07	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-08	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-09	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-10	$13.60	$26,276,407,641	16 / 17
2026-09-11	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 17
2026-09-12	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 17
2026-09-13	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-14	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-15	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-16	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-17	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-18	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-19	$13.59	$26,267,265,656	16 / 18
2026-09-20	$13.59	$26,267,182,323	16 / 18
2026-09-21	$13.59	$26,267,182,323	16 / 18
2026-09-22	$13.59	$26,267,182,323	16 / 18
2026-09-23	$13.59	$26,267,182,323	16 / 18
2026-09-24	$13.59	$26,251,798,946	16 / 18
2026-09-25	$13.59	$26,251,798,946	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$13.58	$26,271,451,119	16 / 18
2026-09-27	$13.58	$26,283,407,641	16 / 18
2026-09-28	$13.58	$26,283,407,641	16 / 18
2026-09-29	$13.58	$26,283,407,641	16 / 18
2026-09-30	$13.58	$26,283,407,641	16 / 18
2026-10-01	$13.58	$26,283,407,641	16 / 18
2026-10-02	$13.56	$26,273,852,282	16 / 18
2026-10-03	$13.56	$26,273,852,282	16 / 18
2026-10-04	$13.56	$26,273,852,282	16 / 18
2026-10-05	$13.56	$26,273,852,282	16 / 18
2026-10-06	$13.56	$26,273,852,282	16 / 18
2026-10-07	$13.55	$26,263,704,836	16 / 18
2026-10-08	$13.54	$26,258,571,302	16 / 18
2026-10-09	$13.53	$26,258,571,302	17 / 19
2026-10-10	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19
2026-10-11	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19
2026-10-12	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19
2026-10-13	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19
2026-10-14	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19
2026-10-15	$13.53	$26,249,482,177	17 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	10	1
2026-06-01	14	11	0
2026-07-01	13	11	0
2026-08-01	15	11	0
2026-09-01	15	12	0
2026-10-01	15	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 12

$348.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 9

$392.00New observation · no comparable prior

Melius ResearchOct 6

$367.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 29

$390.00 → $363.00-6.9%

Wells FargoSep 25 · prior Jul 29

$360.00 → $340.00-5.6%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 24

$396.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$217.80$435.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

adjusted EPS in range $11.50 to $11.90 for 2026Published status: Broken
successful implementation of targeted price increases across all businessesQualitative condition
net sales increase by low to mid-single digit percentage in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sherwin-Williams outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, but management's execution has shown volatility, leading to a medium confidence level.

What's priced into Sherwin-Williams

The market appears to price in a neutral valuation with a slight premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that investors may anticipate some challenges ahead, particularly given the fragile earnings quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results as management aims to increase sales and earnings per share. Recent performance has been neutral, but there is a low probability of missing guidance, despite past volatility in earnings.

What Sherwin-Williams hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed guidance without cutting expectations. Additionally, broader economic factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector peers will significantly influence SHW's trajectory.