Reading SCCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCCO free→Reading SCCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCCO free→NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $194.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $193 SCCO trades at 32× p/e — 1.6× the 20× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $123 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts: $133–$186. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 58% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.65 → $1.74 (+5.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 12% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -20.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$271.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$479.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,022.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Southern Copper is doing. It will also give future guidance. This is important for how investors feel.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better revenue and profit margins than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower revenue and profit margins than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SCCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR PRINCIPAL OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 13, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation (the “Company”) announced with deep regret the unexpected passing of Oscar Gonzalez Rocha, the Company’s President, Chief Executive Officer, and Board member. A titan of the mining industry, Oscar’s 50-year career was defined by a visionary leadership and operational excellence that transformed the C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$133.00 – $186.00 (median $146.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strengthening the project pipeline to achieve long-term copper production goals.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $2,784 million in 2024-Q4 to $4,251 million in 2026-Q1, indicating growth momentum. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“As the world continues to navigate... committed to its operational objectives of increasing production to 1.6 million tons...”
“Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue to advance a disciplined investment strategy... producing 1.6 million tons of copper by 2033.”
Continue to focus on cost-efficiency as a key operational objective.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income rose from $1,307 million in 2024-Q4 to $2,480 million in 2026-Q1, suggesting some cost-efficiency gains. Newly stated, trajectory yet to be fully assessed.
“The Company has remained resilient and committed to its operational objectives... maintaining the cost-efficiency discipline...”
Advance a disciplined investment strategy to strengthen the project pipeline.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue grew from $2,784 million in 2024-Q4 to $4,251 million in 2026-Q1, indicating growth. Newly stated, trajectory yet to be fully assessed.
“Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue to advance a disciplined investment strategy focused on growth...”
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can show if the economy is strong or weak. This affects copper demand and Southern Copper's performance.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims are down. This shows a stronger job market and possible demand for copper.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims are up. This suggests economic weakness and lower demand for copper.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining trend of the materials sector. This could improve Southern Copper's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is now positive. This shows a recovery in materials.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. This confirms the ongoing decline.
of this Form 8-K. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the inline XBRL document) 3 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION By: /s/ Andres Carlos Ferrero Name: Andres Carlos Ferrero Title: General Counsel Date: April 29, 2026 4
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR PRINCIPAL OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 13, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation (the “Company”) announced the unexpected passing of Oscar Gonzalez Rocha, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer. Effective April 16, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Leonardo Contreras Lerdo de Tejada to serve as interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr.…
of this Form 8-K. 104.1 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the inline XBRL document) 3 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION By: /s/ Andres Carlos Ferrero Name: Andres Carlos Ferrero Title: General Counsel Date: January 28, 2026 4
of this Form 8-K. 104.1 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the inline XBRL document) 3 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION By: /s/ Andres Carlos Ferrero Name: Andres Carlos Ferrero Title: General Counsel Date: October 29, 2025 4