Reading VMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMC free→Reading VMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMC free→NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $293.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $293 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 25× p/e peer median but in line with its own 35× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $212 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $283–$360. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.67 → $2.62 (-1.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 13 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,205.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 15.1 points (from 48.1 to 33.0).
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
Valuation fell. The valuation label changed to "expensive.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting the target of $2.4-$2.6 billion is key for growth and investor confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was over $2.6 billion.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was less than $2.4 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, Thompson S. Baker II, President of Vulcan Materials Company (the “Company”), notified the Company that he will retire from such position effective July 15, 2026.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$283.00 – $360.00 (median $320.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VMC Vulcan Materials Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRH CRH plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
CX CEMEX SAB DE CV | — | — | moderate |
EXP Eagle Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain focus on achieving the full-year Adjusted EBITDA target of $2.4 to $2.6 billion.
Continue to control Selling, General, and Administrative expenses within the $580 to $590 million range.
Focus on capital spending for maintenance and growth projects within the $750 to $800 million range.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts demand for construction materials. Strong growth could boost Vulcan's sales.
Confirms:GDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The president is retiring. This may change how the company works.
Confirms one read:A strong successor with the right experience was announced.
Confirms the other:No announcement or a weak successor named.
Why it matters: The $750-$800 million allocation shows how the company invests for future growth. Changes could signal strategy shifts.
Confirms one read:Capital spending was at least $800 million.
Confirms the other:Capital spending was below $750 million.
Why it matters: President Thompson S. Baker II is retiring. This may change the company's plans.
Confirms:A successor is named who has a strong track record in the industry.
Disproves:No new leader is named. This could cause problems during the change.
Why it matters: The new president's plans could impact company direction. Changes in leadership can lead to shifts in focus.
Confirms one read:The new president has a clear growth plan that matches current goals.
Confirms the other:No clear strategy is presented or priorities shift away from current goals.
Why it matters: This sale could improve focus and financials. It reflects strategic shifts in the business.
Confirms:The sale of the California concrete business is now complete.
Disproves:The divestiture faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show problems and affect profits.
Confirms:SG&A costs were under $580 million.
Disproves:SG&A costs were over $590 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Vulcan Materials Company announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release announcing the results is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Vulcan Materials Company announced its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release announcing the results is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in the Original Report, on October 10, 2025, following a comprehensive succession planning process, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Vulcan elected Ronnie A. Pruitt, who currently serves as Chief Operating Officer of Vulcan, as the next Chief Executive Officer of Vulcan, effective January 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 10, 2025, Stanley G. Bass, Chief Strategy Officer of Vulcan Materials Company (“Vulcan”), notified Vulcan that he will retire from such position effective April 30, 2026. On December 12, 2025, upon the recommendation of the Compensation & Human Capital Committee of the Vulcan Board of Directors (the “Board”), the Board approved the pror…