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Track VMC free→Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$293.08+2.31%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Building Materials
- Market cap
- $37.17B
- Employees
- 11,172
- IPO date
- 2008-02-29
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $293.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$212.49consensus
Range $195.14 – $237.57
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$387.89consensus
Range $353.45 – $484.23
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $293 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 25× p/e peer median but in line with its own 35× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $212 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $283–$360. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
35.7x
peer 25.3x · own history 34.7x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
38%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$212.49
range $193.57 – $236.24
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
61st pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
55th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish16 analysts, 65% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.67 → $2.62 (-1.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 13 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,205.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation fell by 15.1 points (from 48.1 to 33.0).
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
Valuation fell. The valuation label changed to "expensive.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results
Why it matters: Meeting the target of $2.4-$2.6 billion is key for growth and investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was over $2.6 billion.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was less than $2.4 billion.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VMC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CRH, MLM, and CX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting VMC and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VMC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VMC cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CRH, MLM, and CX start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping VMC and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits VMC and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-111mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, Thompson S. Baker II, President of Vulcan Materials Company (the “Company”), notified the Company that he will retire from such position effective July 15, 2026.
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.