Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$257.63+2.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vulcan Materials Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.64 → 10.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billion in 2026	Vulcan aims to earn $2.4-$2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.4 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently reiterated full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.35-$2.55 billion for 2025 and $2.4-$2.6 billion for 2026. Actual trailing twelve months Adjusted EBITDA grew from $2.201 billion in 2025-Q2 to $2.354 billion in 2026-Q2, showing delivery on earnings growth with a positive trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Spend $750-$800 million on capital projects in 2026	The company plans to spend $750-$800 million on capital projects.	Intact	Capital spending falls below $750 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $193.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 750-800 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026193,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Capital expenditures were $90 million in 2026-Q1 and $176 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $266 million in first half 2026, consistent with full-year guidance of $750-$800 million. Management is maintaining disciplined capital allocation with steady investment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain gross margin at or above 20% in 2026	A supporting condition in Vulcan Materials Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=20%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 20% in FY26	Gross margin: 29.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202629.014751 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3348af9f-770b-4c90-87e8-267df7e5c6b3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth near 4.5% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Vulcan Materials Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 4.5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.28

$10.77 → $10.28 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.56B

$8.59B → $8.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.77	$8,590,217,300	19 / 17
2026-07-25	$10.77	$8,590,217,300	19 / 17
2026-07-26	$10.77	$8,590,217,300	19 / 17
2026-07-27	$10.77	$8,590,217,300	19 / 17
2026-07-28	$10.77	$8,590,217,300	19 / 17
2026-07-29	$10.80	$8,649,843,138	14 / 14
2026-07-30	$10.78	$8,615,223,190	19 / 17
2026-07-31	$10.77	$8,622,392,660	19 / 18
2026-08-01	$10.76	$8,641,893,620	14 / 14
2026-08-02	$10.76	$8,641,893,620	14 / 15
2026-08-03	$10.79	$8,646,921,120	20 / 19
2026-08-04	$10.76	$8,641,893,620	14 / 15
2026-08-05	$10.79	$8,630,831,640	20 / 19
2026-08-06	$10.79	$8,630,831,640	20 / 19
2026-08-08	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-10	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$10.76	$8,647,863,620	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$10.74	$8,653,435,389	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$10.74	$8,653,435,389	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$10.74	$8,653,435,389	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$10.74	$8,653,435,389	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$10.74	$8,653,435,389	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-26	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-30	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-09-01	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.73	$8,646,338,620	15 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-05	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-06	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-07	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-08	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-09	$10.73	$8,646,334,212	15 / 16
2026-09-10	$10.64	$8,625,034,212	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$10.64	$8,625,034,212	15 / 15
2026-09-12	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-13	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-14	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-15	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-16	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-17	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-18	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-19	$10.64	$8,625,036,342	15 / 15
2026-09-20	$10.60	$8,617,286,342	15 / 15
2026-09-21	$10.60	$8,617,286,342	15 / 15
2026-09-22	$10.60	$8,617,286,342	15 / 15
2026-09-23	$10.60	$8,617,311,342	15 / 16
2026-09-24	$10.60	$8,617,311,342	15 / 16
2026-09-25	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	16 / 16
2026-09-26	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-09-29	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-09-30	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-10-01	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-10-02	$10.55	$8,606,715,405	15 / 16
2026-10-03	$10.54	$8,606,052,233	15 / 16
2026-10-04	$10.47	$8,596,589,204	15 / 16
2026-10-05	$10.46	$8,594,439,204	15 / 16
2026-10-06	$10.45	$8,594,439,204	15 / 16
2026-10-07	$10.45	$8,594,439,204	15 / 16
2026-10-08	$10.45	$8,594,439,204	15 / 16
2026-10-09	$10.40	$8,595,028,028	15 / 16
2026-10-10	$10.40	$8,595,028,028	15 / 16
2026-10-11	$10.38	$8,585,203,028	15 / 16
2026-10-12	$10.38	$8,585,203,028	15 / 16
2026-10-13	$10.37	$8,571,073,028	15 / 16
2026-10-14	$10.35	$8,566,342,229	15 / 16
2026-10-15	$10.28	$8,562,264,729	15 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	6	2
2026-06-01	15	7	1
2026-07-01	15	7	2
2026-08-01	16	8	1
2026-09-01	16	7	2
2026-10-01	16	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Jun 30

$293.00 → $256.00-12.6%

UBSOct 8 · prior Jul 8

$349.00 → $326.00-6.6%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Sep 9

$254.00 → $249.00-2.0%

Truist FinancialOct 5

$320.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$191.95$383.90

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Spend $750-$800 million on capital projects in 2026Capital expenditures: $193.9M
Maintain gross margin at or above 20% in 2026Gross margin: 29.01%
Achieve revenue growth near 4.5% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vulcan Materials Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, despite a recent drop in confidence and mixed financial performance.

What's priced into Vulcan Materials Company

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about VMC's future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its Adjusted EBITDA goals and improve profitability through disciplined pricing. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing future earnings expectations.

What Vulcan Materials Company hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to rise, which could benefit the materials sector. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like CRH, MLM, and CX will be crucial for VMC's momentum.