NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve revenue growth near 4.5% in next 12 months: rev +5.7% vs 4.5% target.
Vulcan aims to earn $2.4-$2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year. Sales grew 7% last quarter. The company plans to spend $750-$800 million on capital projects. Profit margins should stay above 20%.
Vulcan missed earnings in two recent quarters. Leadership changes may cause uncertainty. Sales growth could slow below 4.5%.
The price is about 29% above our fair value near $233. Analysts expect about 4.5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 27% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.4 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Capital spending falls below $750 million in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 20% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's stable execution and recent positive earnings results.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate some level of growth but are cautious about potential volatility.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to meet Adjusted EBITDA targets and improve profit margins. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings estimates, as recent industry trends show some peers struggling.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in guidance during upcoming earnings calls could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Strong demand for construction materials reinforces growth potential for adjusted EBITDA. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4.5% YoY next year
Overall, VMC's fundamentals and management execution suggest a steady outlook for the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
