Reading KNF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with KNF trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $81 the market pays 31× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $64 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $80–$109. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 27% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.07 → $1.15 (+7.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$454.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would show strong demand and effective cost management.
Confirms:Q2 revenue grew more than 16% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 10% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KNF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 15, 2026, Knife River Corporation (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into that certain Second Amendment (the “Second Amendment”) with the lenders and other parties party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, amending that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of May 31, 2023 (as previously amended, restated, amended and restated, supplemented or otherwise modified, the “Credit Agreement”), among the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $109.00 (median $105.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KNF Knife River Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | full | elevated |
CRH CRH plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VMC Vulcan Materials Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
CX CEMEX SAB DE CV | — | — | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Aim to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Ensure efficient capital allocation to support strategic initiatives and financial stability.
Why it matters: Higher spending shows strong growth plans. This could lead to more revenue.
Confirms:Capital spending for growth projects is over $101 million in 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending for growth projects is under $80 million in 2026.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could enhance growth and market position.
Confirms:Announcement of at least one new acquisition in 2026.
Disproves:No new acquisitions announced by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A higher margin means better efficiency. It also means more profit.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin was over 15.8% in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 12% in Q2.
Why it matters: A backlog above this level shows strong revenue potential for the future.
Confirms:Backlog reported above $1 billion in Q2.
Disproves:Backlog falls below $900 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable revenue is important for Knife River. It shows success in their plans.
Confirms:Q2 revenue shows no further decline from $410.1M in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 revenue decreases further from $410.1M.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control and efficiency. These are important for making money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is up by over 300 basis points from last year.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is up by less than 200 basis points from last year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for Knife River's financial health. A positive change would show progress in cost management.
Confirms:Q2 operating income turns positive or gets better from -$86.2M in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 operating income falls more or stays negative.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Knife River is making more money and improving income.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below -2% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Peggy S. Rebstock as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller On May 20, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Knife River Corporation (the “Company”) appointed Peggy S. Rebstock, the Company’s current Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis, to serve as the Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer an…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and