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Track MLM free→Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$603.59+2.50%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. The sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Building Materials
- Market cap
- $34.67B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $603.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$478.73consensus
Range $424.78 – $515.86
vs price: +26% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$733.49consensus
Range $584.08 – $824.69
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $589 MLM trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median. Our $484 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $556–$785. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
31.3x
peer 25.3x · own history 30.6x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
22%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$484.00
range $421.89 – $515.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
56th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
10th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -3.3% / 30d, n=15for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.15 → $4.98 (-3.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -98.3% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,468.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 22d
Watch for GDP growth data on May 28, 2026
Why it matters: GDP growth affects demand for construction materials. Strong growth can lead to increased sales for the company.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:GDP growth is above 2% for Q1 2026. This shows strong economic activity.
Disproves:GDP growth is below 1% for Q1 2026. This suggests an economic slowdown.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MLM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CRH, VMC, and CX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting MLM and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MLM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MLM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CRH, VMC, and CX start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping MLM and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MLM and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 14, 2026, the shareholders of Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (the “Company”) voted to approve the Martin Marietta Amended and Restated Stock-Based Award Plan (the “Plan”). A description of the Plan is included as Appendix C in the Company’s definitive proxy statement for the annual meeting of shareholders held on May 14, 2026, filed with th…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.