Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$500.84+1.96%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Martin Marietta Materials’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

21.61 → 21.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $2.43 billion	Profit (Adjusted EBITDA) is expected near $2.43 billion.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.3 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital spending between $550 million and $600 million	A supporting condition in Martin Marietta Materials's published investment case. The stated target is $550M to $600M.	Intact	Capital spending exceeds $600 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $128M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $550M to $600M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026128,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Capital expenditures guidance has been stated in 7 of last 7 quarters. For 2026, management guided capital expenditures between $550 million and $600 million, reflecting disciplined investment. In prior years, 2025 guidance ranged higher, from $725 million to $850 million, indicating a reduction in capital spending aligned with portfolio optimization and cash flow management. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow by acquiring aggregates businesses and divesting non-core assets	A supporting condition in Martin Marietta Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisitions adding 8+ million tons aggregates annually.	Intact	No significant acquisitions or divestitures completed in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management executed multiple portfolio optimization transactions including the QUIKRETE asset exchange with $450 million cash, acquisition of New Frontier Materials producing over 8 million tons annually, and announced a $13.5 billion transaction to combine with Lhoist North America. These actions have materially reshaped the portfolio, enhancing aggregates and specialties platforms. The trajectory is delivering with ongoing acquisitions and divestitures consistent with stated strategic objectives. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches about $7.16 billion	Revenue should reach about $7.16 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $6.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.947B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.16 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,947,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d8c707f1-a734-458a-8004-58a51ca8c40e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.10

$22.79 → $21.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.69B

$7.63B → $7.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.79	$7,627,836,864	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$22.79	$7,627,836,864	15 / 16
2026-07-26	$22.99	$7,632,693,000	23 / 21
2026-07-27	$22.79	$7,627,837,192	15 / 16
2026-07-28	$22.73	$7,627,837,192	15 / 16
2026-07-29	$22.96	$7,633,326,340	23 / 21
2026-07-30	$22.96	$7,633,326,340	23 / 21
2026-07-31	$22.37	$7,656,004,041	14 / 15
2026-08-01	$22.37	$7,656,004,041	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$22.98	$7,622,327,650	22 / 20
2026-08-03	$22.46	$7,821,839,420	22 / 21
2026-08-04	$22.46	$7,821,839,420	22 / 21
2026-08-05	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-06	$22.09	$7,753,530,420	21 / 22
2026-08-07	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$21.49	$7,814,881,970	15 / 15
2026-08-09	$21.49	$7,814,881,970	15 / 15
2026-08-10	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-13	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	12 / 14
2026-08-16	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	12 / 14
2026-08-17	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	12 / 14
2026-08-18	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	12 / 14
2026-08-19	$22.05	$7,713,250,431	12 / 14
2026-08-20	$21.66	$7,750,530,936	12 / 13
2026-08-21	$21.66	$7,750,530,936	12 / 13
2026-08-22	$21.66	$7,750,530,936	12 / 13
2026-08-23	$21.66	$7,750,530,936	12 / 13
2026-08-24	$21.66	$7,750,530,936	12 / 13
2026-08-25	$21.63	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-26	$21.63	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-27	$21.63	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-28	$21.63	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-29	$21.63	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-30	$21.65	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-08-31	$21.65	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-09-01	$21.65	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-09-02	$21.65	$7,758,139,834	12 / 13
2026-09-03	$21.65	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-04	$21.65	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$21.65	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-06	$21.65	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-07	$21.65	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-08	$21.68	$7,758,123,296	12 / 13
2026-09-09	$21.78	$7,735,519,034	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$21.61	$7,744,078,977	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$21.61	$7,744,078,977	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$21.61	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$21.61	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$21.61	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$21.61	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$21.61	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$21.34	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$21.34	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$21.34	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$21.34	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$21.40	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$21.40	$7,744,078,978	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$21.37	$7,723,990,095	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$21.37	$7,723,990,095	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$21.35	$7,740,053,231	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$21.35	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$21.35	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$21.35	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$21.60	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$21.60	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$21.60	$7,740,053,231	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$21.59	$7,862,499,050	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$21.55	$7,729,357,541	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$21.55	$7,729,357,541	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$21.55	$7,729,357,541	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$21.54	$7,736,154,275	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$21.52	$7,736,154,275	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$21.52	$7,736,154,275	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$21.42	$7,735,756,685	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$21.42	$7,735,756,685	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$21.34	$7,728,644,742	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$21.34	$7,728,644,742	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$21.34	$7,728,644,742	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$21.27	$7,727,589,193	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$21.10	$7,692,864,574	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	7	2
2026-06-01	14	8	2
2026-07-01	14	8	2
2026-08-01	14	9	1
2026-09-01	16	9	1
2026-10-01	16	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Aug 28

$620.00 → $530.00-14.5%

UBSOct 8 · prior Aug 3

$715.00 → $662.00-7.4%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Sep 21

$585.00 → $579.00-1.0%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior May 4

$730.00 → $625.00-14.4%

$0$401.50$803.00

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $2.43 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Capital spending between $550 million and $600 millionCapital expenditures: $128M
Grow by acquiring aggregates businesses and divesting non-core assetsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches about $7.16 billionRevenue: $1.947B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Martin Marietta Materials outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a mixed execution quality. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent acquisitions and a stable revenue outlook, but faces challenges from sector headwinds and management volatility.

What's priced into Martin Marietta Materials

The market currently prices MLM as cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The valuation reflects a durable premium, suggesting that while the stock is not overly expensive, it is not without risks given the fragile earnings quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to optimizing the portfolio through acquisitions and divestitures, although execution quality remains fragile. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing guidance, but the company has been facing challenges similar to its peers.

What Martin Marietta Materials hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or raise guidance in upcoming calls and the performance of sector peers like CRH, VMC, and CX. Additionally, a reacceleration of inflation could provide a favorable backdrop for MLM's performance.