Reading SMID? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMID free→Reading SMID? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMID free→NASDAQMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. What it hinges on includes the potential for guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 SMID trades at 15× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$246.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$561.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,929.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is crucial for remaining listed on Nasdaq. A delisting could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Smith-Midland files its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q by the deadline.
Disproves:Smith-Midland fails to file the Form 10-Q, leading to a delisting.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMID yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On May 29, 2026, Smith-Midland Corporation (the “Company”) received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) stating that because the Company had not yet filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”), the Company is not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1). Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) requires…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMID Smith-Midland Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CRH CRH plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VMC Vulcan Materials Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MLM Martin Marietta Materials | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
CX CEMEX SAB DE CV | — | — | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to increase product sales for the full year of 2026 compared to 2025.
The company needs to address compliance issues with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector could improve Smith-Midland's sales.
Confirms:Materials sector reports positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Disproves:The materials sector still shows a drop in revenue.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if product sales are improving. This affects growth outlook.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows product sales increased from last year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows product sales decreased from last year.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of…